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Hurricane Oscar expected to linger around Cuba and the Bahamas for several days
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Milton) , Major: 12 (Milton) Florida - Any: 12 (Milton) Major: 12 (Milton)
Rem Oscar
ADV#15 2:00 pm EDT
23.0N 74.0W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Ne at 12 mph
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Central Atlantic Wave
      Wed Aug 23 2017 10:41 AM



A vigorous wave that has rolled off Africa is merging with an active portion of the Monsoon Trof, and a closed low may be trying to form.

This feature is presently located a couple hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, with movement slowly to the west or west-northwest.

Models have alternately run warm/cool on this feature. However, it is looking much more impressive today, and while NHC has not yet highlighted it in previous TWOs, this area of low pressure could become a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. Steering patterns suggest that early development may encourage a track more to the northwest, but models suggest that it either develops and then weakens back into a wave after a few days, or never becomes a tropical cyclone during the next ten. A weaker system may have a harder time finding an exit in the ridge to its north, and as such, a longer-term track west is possible.

This disturbance is not yet listed as an Invest, but may get tagged soon and the title will be updated as warranted.

Aug 28 update - A ghost of this feature can now be found in the central Tropical Atlantic, still not Invest tagged, from about 7N 46W to 10.5N 51W as an extension of the Monsoon Trof. Convection has started to increase a little over the past day. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Aug 28 2017 12:09 PM)

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