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An area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is starting to become evident today. Models over the last few runs have suggested that this feature will become more prominent during the week, with several of the best Tropical Cyclone genesis models' runs indicating formation into a depression or storm by early next week, with a track generally north towards Texas or Louisiana.

This feature seems to be a combination of remnant trailing troffiness in the wake of Harvey + the monsoon trof being drawn northward + one or more African Easterly Waves. Such a combination can easily result in a very wet system, regardless of TC development, and we can only hope the best for locations already ravaged by Harvey.

As of the 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017 NHC TWO this still region has been highlighted for potential cyclogenesis within 5 days (20% per NHC) -

Quote:

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An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward. If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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This disturbance is not yet Invest tagged, but likely will be this week if current trends continue, and the title will be updated as warranted.

As of Sat 2 September, surface troffiness remains in the SW Gulf, and is continuing to interact with passing waves. Organization has been limited at best since this thread was first started, and the disturbance is still not Invest tagged.


This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on this feature's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are appropriate here.

As of 05 0z this low is now being tracked as Invest 95L

201709050000 21.7N 96.2W 25 KTS
201709051800 22.4N 96.8W 30 KTS

13L strengthened overnight and has been upgraded to a tropical storm, Katia. The title has been updated accordingly.

As of the 4PM Sep 6 Advisory, Katia has been upgraded to a hurricane.
4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 6
Location: 21.7°N 95.1°W
Moving: SE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph


Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 06 2017 05:39 PM)

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