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Chances for development of this system are up to 50%, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings could be issued as early as tomorrow for portions of the NW Gulf.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 613 (Milton), US Major: 613 (Milton), FL Any: 613 (Milton), FL Major: 613 (Milton)

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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx

Invest 99L Lounge
Wed Sep 27 2017 09:44 PM

An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and mid-level trof, presently centered just south of Cuba at the time of this post, is in a slightly favorable environment for slow development over the next 48 hours, and potentially modestly favorable environment overall over the course of the next five days as it tracks north, and then possibly northwest or west.

This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but NHC has highlighted it within its TWOs today, and gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone within 120 hours.

Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely enhance rains across Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida for the next several days, and we are now watching it closely for any signs of development. Presently, model support is lukewarm, with the ECMWF, GFS, GEM and others on board for at least some slow cooking. Stay tuned.

Title updated to reflect Invest tag - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Sep 28 2017 05:23 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Invest 99L Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 27 2017 09:44 PM
Re: Caribbean Disturbance	cieldumort	Thu Sep 28 2017 05:21 PM
Re: Caribbean Disturbance	OrlandoDan	Fri Sep 29 2017 11:39 AM

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