cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Alberto Lounge
Sun May 13 2018 11:16 PM
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On the heels of what will likely soon be designated Invest 90L* (the presently non-tropical low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico), several models' runs have been lukewarm to bullish on cooking up a stronger cyclone in its wake, and one with much more tropical DNA, and the region is, for reasons that will be discussed below, looking favorable in the back half of this month.
While this 'future cyclone' feature has not yet formed, odds favor development of a solid tropical disturbance at a minimum, one which could easily affect land and ocean interests in the western Caribbean and/or Gulf of Mexico within the next 5-15 days, so we're starting a Lounge. Yes, this is somewhat unusual, as we normally wait for a disturbance to have existed before doing so. Suffice it say, we have time to keep a watchful eye on this potential future cyclone. This could be a significant system, on a relative basis. No hurricanes of record have made landfall along the Gulf coast states during the month of May.
Backdrop
Active Atlantic hurricane seasons have tended to come in clusters in recent decades.
2017 was hyperactive, and occurred within a ramp-up of activity from a nadir in 2013-15. 2017 saw the earliest Main Development Region named storm in history, the first U.S.-landfalling Major since 2005, and set countless other records. 2016 was the first above-average Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.
Other recent active Atlantic 'clusters'
2010, 2011, 2012
2007, 2008
2003, 2004, 2005
1998, 1999, 2000, 2001
1995, 1996
Rhymes with 2012 for $200
And perhaps a little bit of history rhyming - As Mike notes in the Gulf Low #1 Lounge, " the last time this set of names was used (2012) there were two systems that formed in May, Alberto and Beryl." - In the tropics, history can and does somewhat repeat itself. 2012 was the final year in a very active cluster (2010, 11, 12), and yes, indeed, two named storms formed during the month of May.
Analysis and updates to come in subsequent entries
* Invest number 90 was never applied to the earlier May gulf system (NE GOM) we were watching, and so that tag (90L) got applied here to what we have been calling our "May Gulf System #2."
An "Invest" is not an actual meteorological classification (e.g. depression, storm, etc.), but rather just a moniker used when NHC is paying extra attention to a given feature - making clear that they want to INVESTigate it further. - Ciel
Edited by MikeC (Fri May 25 2018 10:10 AM)
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