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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 329 (Nicholas) , Major: 345 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1399 (Michael) Major: 1399 (Michael)

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Loc: Austin, Tx
TD 11 Lounge
      Wed Sep 19 2018 09:17 PM

An African Easterly Wave formerly embedded within the ITCZ has been interacting with a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave, and is showing some initial signs of development this evening. This feature has just been Invest tagged 97L, and NHC has raised their bid to 20% on development through perhaps about Friday, before conditions for TC genesis are expected to become less favorable.

As of 9:30PM AST, 97L was located roughly 875 miles east of the Windward Islands, or near 47W 9.5N, with a slow movement generally to the west-northwest. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be around 25 KTS with a pressure of 1009 MB.

While conditions over the Atlantic basin in totality are less than climatology, a few regions are at least marginally conducive, and a tropical depression or storm could form before this disturbance reaches the Lesser Antilles. A few models have been picking up on this over the past few days, with even more model buy-in today. From the looks of things, one might expect to see even more buy-in yet with the coming 0z runs.

This is a robust wave in what looks to be a conducive environment for development. Given its small, compact size, rapid genesis into a TD or TS seems very plausible.

97L is confirmed a Tropical Cyclone and NHC will initiate advisories at 11 PM AST today Sep 21. The title has been updated accordingly. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 21 2018 10:16 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD 11 Lounge cieldumortModerator Wed Sep 19 2018 09:17 PM
. * * Re: TD 11 Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 22 2018 02:02 AM
. * * Re: 97L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 21 2018 05:34 PM
. * * Re: 97L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 21 2018 03:02 AM

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