cieldumort
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Posts: 2115
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Leslie Lounge
Fri Sep 21 2018 02:37 PM
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Below: GFS Surface (10m wind and MSLP) analysis Sep 20 0z
Florence is no longer, having transitioned into an elongated trough of low pressure, and ultimately merging with a mid-latitude system and becoming part of the reason for frontogenesis while exiting the east coast. This merged system, with scant Florence DNA left in it, is now well offshore of the east coast and has a couple of lows developing within it.
For several days, several models have had runs pinching off the southern extent/s of this system, with one or two synoptic-scale lows taking off on their own with subtropical or even tropical development. The first of these went on to become Invest 98L, which may have briefly become a tropical storm while out near Bermuda, and which is now being watched itself for the possibility of regeneration closer to the east coast next week.
The NHC has been ramping up their odds for the northern branch of this area to develop into a subtropical or tropical storm, and as of the 2PM TWO Sep 21 5-Day Outlook, this region is now given 70% odds.
Model support for tropical cyclogenesis and subsequent intensification of this still-to-be-formed cyclone has been strong, with several suggesting that this storm may become the second Major of 2018. Fortunately, fingers crossed, most runs also keep it well out to sea. Caveat being, we saw the same with Florence, up until steering patterns unexpectedly changed, and thus obviously no tropical cyclone should ever be written off.
This system has not yet developed and does not yet have an Invest tag, but will likely pick one up over the weekend, probably 90L, and the title will be updated as warranted. Edit: As of 9/22/1800z this system is now tagged Invest 90L and the title has been updated. As of 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 advisories have begun on Subtropical Storm Leslie - Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 23 2018 01:01 PM)
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