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Archives 2010s >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
C Am. Gyre (91L, 97E, 94L etc)
      Sun Sep 30 2018 06:53 AM

For several weeks now many models have been hinting at TC formation in the southern Caribbean during the first week of October - possibly as an offshoot of a Central American Gyre (CAG). While development of a robust CAG is looking less likely, and the time frame for tropical cyclogenesis has been getting pushed out, models in total now seem to be honing in on the October 4-8 range for a TD to form in the Caribbean.

At this time it looks like the most likely source for formation will come from a mix of a new tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, and perhaps a weak CAG. It does not look likely that such a system would retain the name Kirk, but possibly, in which case this thread would get merged with the existing Kirk Lounge.

Early October is very much a climatologically favored part of the season for TCs in this region to develop and track north to northeastward, and rarely northwestward. At this time the model breakdown from 09-30-0Z is as follows:

ECMWF - Genesis by 0z Oct 8 heading north. Sloppy TD or Inverted Trof through end of run 0z Oct 10.

GFS - Genesis by 18z Sat Oct 6. Brief DR & Bahamas impact as a sloppy TD or weak storm, then out to sea

GFS FV3 - Genesis by 0z Oct 7. Cat 2 hurricane landfall on SC/NC border by 12z Oct 10

CMC - Genesis by 12z Sun Oct 7. Blocked by building High to the north and tracks NW. Cat 1 in southern Gulf by end of run on 0z Oct 10

NAVGEM - Genesis by 0z Oct 6. Blocked by building High to the north and tracks NNW. Nearing western Cuba as a strong Trop Storm at end of run at 12z Sun Oct 7.

ICON - Genesis by 0z Oct 4. Very little movement in central Caribbean through end of run at 06z Oct 6 as a 994 MB trop storm by that point.

This feature has not yet formed and does not yet have an Invest tag, but the precursor systems appear to be coming in place for a good chance of tropical cyclogenesis next week, and the title will be updated or merged as appropriate.

Title changed to Central American Gyre. It now looks like a CAG is indeed forming over the western Caribbean and will likely stay locked in place for a while because of a blocking pattern. Given these forecast steering currents, multiple spin-off systems (of unknown intensity still) may form, in addition to the heavy, flooding rains occurring within the parent Gyre itself. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Oct 14 2018 05:03 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* C Am. Gyre (91L, 97E, 94L etc) cieldumortModerator Sun Sep 30 2018 06:53 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 12 2018 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) IsoFlame   Sat Oct 13 2018 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) IsoFlame   Fri Oct 12 2018 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) IsoFlame   Fri Oct 12 2018 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) cieldumortModerator   Sun Oct 07 2018 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre (91L, 97E, etc) cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 06 2018 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 05 2018 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 05 2018 03:52 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 05 2018 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 05 2018 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 05 2018 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 05 2018 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 04 2018 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre Keith B   Thu Oct 04 2018 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Thu Oct 04 2018 04:23 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 04 2018 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Central American Gyre cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 03 2018 05:26 AM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 02 2018 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct cieldumortModerator   Tue Oct 02 2018 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 01 2018 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct IsoFlame   Tue Oct 02 2018 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 03 2018 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 30 2018 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 30 2018 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct IsoFlame   Sun Sep 30 2018 10:46 PM

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