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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Nadine Lounge
      Sun Oct 07 2018 03:11 PM



As if we needed a reminder that the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is exceeding expectations, an area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic is showing some signs of trying to come together today. This feature is defined by an apparently closed, broad surface center presently located near 23W 7N, and a vigorous possibly closed mid-level low aloft displaced to the northeast.

While not yet Invest tagged, this feature has become much better looking since yesterday, and models have begun picking up on it a little. The ECMWF, GFS and FV3-GFS seem to initialize it far to weak. The Canadian CMC and German ICON models do seem to initialize it better, and both of those latter models do develop this low.

ICON - 1006 MB TD by late Tuesday Oct 9th. Begins recurving north while southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Tropical Storm by Th Oct 11, weakens some, misses exit hatch and begins tracking WNW while continuing to weaken. Trapped under High pressure heading WNW from 23N 40W at end of run.

CMC - TD by midday Oct 9th, Trop Storm by predawn Oct 10th, still heading WNW on a weakening trend. End of run right on top of Puerto Rico as a very weak but maybe wet TD or open wave 12z Wed. Oct 17th.

Lots of time to keep an eye on this one.. still many days away should it develop further, and we will update the title if and when Invest tagged. -

Edit. This disturbance was tagged 93L a few hours ago Oct 8, and is on the cusp of being a T.D. - Ciel
NHC concluded 93L had become TD 15 at 6AM EDT Oct 10. FIFTEEN is now a Tropical Storm, the 14th of this active 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Oct 09 2018 09:47 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nadine Lounge cieldumortModerator Sun Oct 07 2018 03:11 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 08 2018 12:03 PM
. * * Re: E Atl Tropical Low cieldumortModerator   Mon Oct 08 2018 05:17 AM

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