10:00AM EDT 17 September 2025 Update
Invest 92L became designated TD 7 early this morning. SEVEN is a very sloppy depression, and there may even be an argument that it remains more of a trof than one would like to see in a designated TC.

Initial runs on 92L pegged the disturbance around 13N, with NHC initial positioning of SEVEN at 13.7N. The system tracked as SEVEN now appears to be closer to 19N, based on conventional satellite imagery. Models and forecasts of SEVEN should be taken with a large helping of salt until there is more clarity. "TD 7" could have made a jump into the northern portion of the trof axis.

More on this in the Gabrielle Lounge
Ciel

Original Update


After a peak-season hibernation the likes of which have not been seen since 1939, the Atlantic basin is waking back up.

Basin-wide conditions for development are improving this week. A positive pulse from the MJO along with a climatologically consistent trend towards greater instability overall as we head into fall will conspire to enhance thunderstorm activity. Higher pressure in the subtropics appears set to weaken and/or shove away some of the TUTTs that have imparted high levels of shear and dry air over the past month. Meanwhile, the waves keep rolling off of Africa.

One of the waves to recently exit Africa is now on the cusp of becoming our next TD. This disturbance, Invest 92L, has potential to become a long-track Cape Verde-type storm, provided the basin does perform this week as forecast. Several models give 92L decent odds to become a powerful hurricane. Fortunately, very few models take it towards land, but at a minimum, Bermuda should watch.

Behind 92L another wave appears to have a good shot at development. This one is not yet Invest tagged.

Closer to home, a hybrid coastal storm off the coast of NC/VA remains too attached to its parent fronts and is under too much shear to have much more than maybe a 2% chance at a name, but those right along the coasts in this region probably agree that it "feels" like something with a name. This is expected to weaken today and track out to sea.