Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 8:27 PM

AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
725 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Flood Watch remains in effect through 10 PM for coastal
  counties. The highest potential for flooding exists along the
  Treasure Coast where 2 to 4 inches of rain is likely, with
  locally higher amounts of 6".

- Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will continue through late evening
  inland and into early Thursday morning along the coast. A Wind
  Advisory remains in effect. Breezy conditions are forecast
  through late week.

- Dangerous beach and boating conditions persist, including the
  risk for numerous life-threatening rip currents and rough surf.
  Minor beach erosion during times of high tide is possible.

- Drier conditions gradually return Friday into the weekend as a
  warming trend begins

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Now-Tonight...Early this afternoon, a surface trough is sitting over
the east central Florida coast. This feature, along with saturated
easterly flow, is supporting scattered onshore-moving showers. A few
lightning strikes have also been observed in the last hour or two,
just offshore over the Atlantic waters. Forecast soundings and hi-
res model guidance suggest deeper moisture convergence this
afternoon, generally from southern Brevard and central Osceola
counties southward. Run-to-run signals of some locally higher
rainfall totals of 2-4" (locally 6") continue, especially focused on
the Treasure Coast. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall exists in
these areas, highlighting the coast from Melbourne southward.
Instances of localized flooding are possible, especially in low-
lying areas and in locations that have received heavy rain over the
last 48+ hours. While the signal for heavier rainfall is lower to
the north, have decided to let the Flood Watch continue for all
coastal counties through 10 PM (including Volusia).

In addition to the rain is the strong wind. More sites are beginning
to gust 35+ mph this afternoon, especially over the northern two-
thirds of the area, as the pressure gradient tightens. 925mb winds
are forecast to strengthen up to 35-40 kt through the evening,
increasing the potential for 35-45 mph gusts. A Wind Advisory
remains in effect for most of the area, with Okeechobee County
joining in the advisory at 4 PM. For now, the advisory is set to
expire by 5 AM Thursday, but this conditions will be evaluated for
any updates through the evening.

Beach conditions will remain dangerous this afternoon into tonight.
Buoy 41114 has been reporting 8 to 9-foot seas with a long period of
11 seconds. This makes for a rough and dangerous surf zone, which is
why the High Surf Advisory and High Risk of Rip Currents continues
into Thursday.

Thursday-Friday...The H5 trough axis slides east on Thursday,
gradually lessening overall support for shower activity. That said,
Thursday still looks soggy with scattered showers around through mid
afternoon. CAMs suggest 1-2" of additional rainfall is possible in
the more organized showers (cannot rule out an isolated storm).
Later in the day and into the evening, drier air starts to work
south and cut into shower development (especially after sunset).
While not quite as windy, coupled onshore winds will support gusts
of 30-35 mph on Thursday, especially at the immediate coast.
Conditions at the beaches will remain dangerous, so staying out of
the water is highly encouraged!

Drier air helps to clear skies out a bit on Friday, which allows the
upcoming warming trend to commence. Comfortably mild highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s are forecast as a very low chance for a shower
remains from Sebastian south to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure
Coast. Otherwise, dry weather starts to take over with high pressure
building over the eastern U.S. Surf conditions will still remain
dangerous with a high risk of rip currents lingering at area beaches.

Saturday-Wednesday...Increasingly dry and warm conditions take over
this weekend, and especially next week, as an H5 ridge axis builds
overhead. For perspective, normal high temperatures for mid-April
are generally in the low 80s. Saturday`s forecast highs place us
slightly below normal before the low 80s return everywhere Sunday
and Monday. Interior locations warm up the most through the middle
of next week, reaching the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday. Onshore
flow will continue with surface high pressure situated well north
and east of us. The pressure gradient weakens from Tuesday onward,
so occasional gusts around 20 mph from the sea breeze will about do
it for peak winds each afternoon. Don`t be caught off guard by a
return to more inviting weather at the beaches! Wave heights begin
to decrease late this weekend into the first part of next week, but
a lingering long period swell will prolong the moderate to high risk
for rip currents.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Dangerous marine conditions are ongoing this afternoon with Buoys
41114 and 41009 reporting wave heights of 9 feet and 14 feet,
respectively. A tight pressure gradient is supporting east-northeast
winds of 25+ knots with frequent gusts near or just below gale
force. A Gale Warning remains in place for all legs of the local
Atlantic until 2 AM Thursday, followed by a Small Craft Advisory
thereafter. Rough seas will persist Thursday as winds slacken only
slightly, sustained 20-27 kt and gusting up to 30 kt at times. Seas
9-14 ft.

From Friday onward, fresh to strong onshore breezes will
continue as the high anchors over the Appalachians. This will
prolong poor to hazardous boating conditions through much of the
weekend. Seas decrease to 6-9 ft Friday afternoon, remaining 5-8
ft through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VCSH and SHRA will continue through the overnight hours, with
reducing coverage anticipated over the next few hours across east
central Florida. Windy and gusty ENE winds persist at all
terminals, with the strongest gusts focused along the coast. MVFR
CIGs are forecast at all terminals through the overnight hours,
though periods of VFR CIGs may be possible at times. VCSH persists
into Thursday areawide. It is too early to determine exact
locations where SHRA will be possible, and therefore too early to
determine where TEMPOs will be needed. Will continue to monitor
and amend as needed. Showers look to diminish into tomorrow night
areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  75  64  78 /  50  50  10  10
MCO  66  74  64  78 /  50  60  10  10
MLB  67  76  67  78 /  60  70  30  10
VRB  66  77  66  78 /  70  60  30  20
LEE  64  77  61  81 /  30  50  10   0
SFB  64  77  63  80 /  50  60  10  10
ORL  65  76  63  80 /  50  60  10  10
FPR  66  77  65  78 /  70  60  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-141-154-159-
     164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ044>046-053-058-
     144.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$