Info PSH Tropical Preliminary Report — Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:51 PM

PSHLIX) is
posted as a preliminary report at this time. The report will be
revised as more data become available. Visit the news link on the
top of our website, www.weather.gov/lix for more details.

.SHORT TERM...
Well established gulf breeze boundary noted moving inland across
the MS coastal counties and a lake breeze over the Big Branch
marsh. A few showers were noted near Ocean Springs/St. Martin and
near Goose Point, but remain weak and short-lived. Satellite
imagery shows steady progression of stratocumulus field spreading
westward in response to a weak easterly wave passing across the
gulf. The interaction of these features on Sunday will likely
induce a slightly better coverage of afternoon showers and storms,
particularly to the southwest of the tidal lakes. This package
maintains the 20-30 percent PoPS as indicated by the NBM.
Otherwise, temperatures should be able to reach the lower 90s most
locations Sunday and Monday.

.LONG TERM...
Models in consensus in showing a large upper level low pressure
lobe breaking off the northern branch flow and settlling as a cut
off low over the Appalachians. This ejects a back-door cold front
into the forecast area Tuesday which is usually devoid of
convection, but fringe flow in deeper humid air may allow for some
convective development in the late afternoon/early evening hours
to the west of the boundary. There is some degree of uncertainty
what becomes of the cut-off low later in the week. The GFS digs
the system farther south and mulls around into the weekend. The
ECMWF shows some interaction with another easterly
wave or caribbean disturbance that gets lifted northward along the
eastern seaboard later in the week. Despite these disparities, it
does appear the local area will remain essentially dry, pehaps an
isolated shower or two each afternoon Thursday onward.
Temperatures should be near seasonable normals throughout.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with some mid level cloud bases generally in FEW to
SCT coverage during the period. There may be a need for VCSH or
VCTS at KHUM/KMSY Sunday afternoon but lower PoP coverage
elsewhere to preclude mention at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly flow at light to moderate levels today will lessen
Sunday and Monday. A backdoor front will move through the north
gulf to back winds to NE briefly Tuesday. High pressure builds
over the east gulf by mid-week to bring about onshore flow at
light levels in the north-central gulf that persists into next
weekend.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
Code: Blue.
Activities: Mainstem flood warnings
            Critical IDSS site support

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  89  69  91 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  70  90  69  92 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  70  89  69  92 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  75  88  74  90 /   0  10   0  10
GPT  72  87  71  89 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  69  90  68  92 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$