Info PNS Public Information Statement — Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:36 AM

PNSAKQ).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Trough aloft (while weakening) tracks over the FA late tonight-
Fri w/ little fanfare. Sfc hi pres will shift off the coast as
well. Mainly SKC tonight-Fri w/ winds generally SSW AOB 10 mph.
Not quite as chilly/cold tonight w/ lows from the l-m30s inland
to the 40-45F at the coast. Highs Fri ranging through the
m-u60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...

A bit of an adjustment to the 2nd half of the weekend due a
potential coastal tracking N near or offshore of the FA. Have
raised clouds/PoPs for areas I 95 on E...after 00Z/22 through
the day Sun. Highest PoPs right now will be limited to coastal
locations from NE NC N through VA/the lower SE MD ern shore.

OTW...The PNA flips to negative with the NAO rising to near
neutral. The Ontario upper low lifts farther into Sat as a deep
longwave trough digs across the west coast to the intermountain
west this weekend, with ridging building across the east. These
two features will continue to amplify into early next week,
allowing for the warming trend and dry weather to continue over
the local area Fri night into Sat.

For late weekend/early next week, models continue to hone
details with respect to an upper trough and weak coastal
trough/sfc low pres development off the SE coast. Models are in
better agreement with this, with the 00z/GFS continuing to be
the most intent on throwing moisture into a developing cool air
wedge airmass.

Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, and upper 60s to ~70F
Sun and Mon. Lows in the upper 30s W to mid 40s E Fri night,
lower 40s W to lower 50s E Sat night, mid 40s W to mid 50s E Sun
night, and upper 40s to around 50F W to mid 50s E Mon night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions expected to continue through the 12Z/20 TAF
forecast period. Starting out w/ calm or LGT WSW winds which
become SW 10-15 mph for the midday/this afternoon. VFR
conditions continue tonight-Fri. Could see some patchy early
morning fog Sat...but the next CHC for a more substantial period
with sub-VFR conditions and rain (especially at the coast)
comes late Sat night-Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...

Early this morning, high pressure was building into the local area
from the SW at the surface. Aloft, a closed low was sitting to the
NE of the Great Lakes and a broad trough was over the eastern
half of the CONUS with its axis just to our west. W-NW Winds
have diminished over the past couple of hours. Latest obs are
showing 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt. Winds stay around
10-15kt this morning as high pressure builds along the coast and
winds turn to the SW. Windspeeds increase in the northern Bay
to ~15kt and 15-20kt in northern coastal waters this afternoon.
Waves are 1-2ft and seas are 2-3ft, increasing to 4ft in coastal
waters off of Ocean City as winds pick up.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday as high
pressure prevails. By Saturday afternoon, winds will have turned
to the NE ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from the
SE. This low is expected to track along the shoreline Saturday
night-Monday morning. Winds will increase from S to N starting
Saturday afternoon with winds 15-20kt in southern coastal
waters, 10- 15kt elsewhere. Blended guidance jumped up several
kts compared to yesterday, so trended that direction. Will
likely need SCAs in coastal waters, Currituck Sound, the Bay,
and the lower James starting late Saturday night and continuing
through at least Sunday night, longer for coastal waters. Seas
are expected to build to 6-7ft Sunday, waves 3-4ft in the Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM