Advisory FFA Flood Watch — Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:20 AM

FFASJU) for more information

An unsettled weather pattern will continue today across the region
as an upper-level trough and associated surface trough continues to
promote moisture pooling across the islands. However, the upper-
level trough is gradually weakening and 500 mb temperatures are
expected to remain around -5.5C through the short term period.
Meanwhile, a weak upper-level ridge will gradually build across the
eastern Caribbean and a surface high pressure over the central
Atlantic will promote moderate southeasterly trades across the
region. This scenario suggest a slow drying pattern through the
weekend, with PWAT values forecasted to decrease from around 2.30
inches today to near 2.00 inches on Saturday. Regardless, this
moisture content is still above normal values, and showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop each day in diurnal activity.
Today should be the wettest day, in terms of areal coverage across
all islands. Then, a more seasonable pattern is expected on Friday
and Saturday with nighttime convection favoring the windward areas
of the islands, followed by afternoon convection downwind of the
islands and across portions of the interior and western PR.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...

The inherited forecast is still on track. On Sunday, expect
another moisture surge to reach the forecast area, as the low-
pressure system approaches. This wet pattern will prevail through
the first part of the workweek. Latest model run is suggesting
that Tuesday will be the peak of the event, with moisture contents
reaching 2 inches. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring
this system and is giving it a 50% chance of development within
the next five days. At this time, the system does not represent a
direct impact on the local islands other than an increase in
moisture content across the region. The main threats with this
event are flooding and mudslides, due to how saturated the soils
are. Urban and small stream flooding is very likely with the
passage of this weather feature. Expect Wednesday to be a
transition day, as models suggest a more seasonal weather pattern
through at least Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...

The inherited forecast is still on track. On Sunday, expect
another moisture surge to reach the forecast area, as the low-
pressure system approaches. This wet pattern will prevail through
the first part of the workweek. Latest model run is suggesting
that Tuesday will be the peak of the event, with moisture contents
reaching 2 inches. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring
this system and is giving it a 50% chance of development within
the next five days. At this time, the system does not represent a
direct impact on the local islands other than an increase in
moisture content across the region. The main threats with this
event are flooding and mudslides, due to how saturated the soils
are. Urban and small stream flooding is very likely with the
passage of this weather feature. Expect Wednesday to be a
transition day, as models suggest a more seasonal weather pattern
through at least Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 AM AST Thu Oct 27 2022

Unsettled weather conditions will continue across the local
region. Therefore, MVFR conditions across local terminals will
remain possible throughout this evening. JPS/JSJ/IST/ISX/JBQ can
expect TSRA/SHRA at times. Another round with +TSRA/+SHRA will
return after 28/04z. Winds will continue from the SE/ESE at 10-15
knots and locally higher near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION...Sct-Num SHRA with Isold TSRA will continue to affect the
regional waters and the local flying area today, as a tropical wave
continues to cross the region while interacting with an upper-level
trough. SCT ocnl bkn lyrs nr FL025..FL050...BKN-OVC lyrs btw FL080-
FL120. Winds will increase from the east-southeast at 10 to 15 kts
with sea breeze variations aft 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1007 AM AST Thu Oct 27 2022

Mariners should exercise caution across the local waters due to
thunderstorm activity. This activity may produce frequent
lightning, sudden waterspout and strong winds. We did not
introduce new changes.

&&

.MARINE...Increasing winds and the passage of a tropical wave
across the Caribbean waters will maintain choppy seas today, mainly
across the offshore Caribbean waters and the Mona Passage. As a
result, small craft operators should exercise caution due to seas up
to 6 feet and east to southeasterly winds near 20 knots. Please
refer to the latest Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU) issued by WFO
San Juan PR for latest updates.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flood Watch through Friday evening for PRZ001>013.

VI...Flood Watch through Friday evening for VIZ001-002.

&&

$$