Advisory FFA Flood Watch — Fri Oct 28, 2022 4:59 AM

FFASJU) for more information

Upper-level trough northwest of the area will gradually lift further
north, while a ridge slowly builds over the northeastern Caribbean
through the short term period. At the surface, a lingering trough
with axis just west of the area will continue to promote moisture
pooling over the islands, and an unsettled weather pattern is
expected today, mainly across the local waters and portions of
Puerto Rico. Due to saturated and loose soils, any period of
moderate to heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, as well as rapid river rises. Therefore, a FFA continues
in effect through at least this evening.

Looking further into the weekend, the scenario looks somewhat
complicated, as an area of low pressure at the surface is expected
to form off the lingering trough across the Caribbean waters. The
rainfall forecast will be driven by where the low forms, if it
develops to our south (GFS solution) then, an increase in the areal
coverage of showers could likely persist into early next week or if
it develops more to our southwest (ECMWF solution) then, Sunday
should be our wettest day. Regardless of both solutions, and taking
into consideration the evolution of the past few days weather
pattern, and the proximity of the surface and upper-level troughs,
there is still the potential for shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region. Therefore, please continue to monitor the weather
conditions during the weekend before doing any outside activities.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...

On Monday, expect conditions to continue deteriorating as the
low-pressure system moves close to the forecast area. The National
Hurricane Center is monitoring this area of low pressure and is
giving it a 60% chance of development, as environmental conditions
seem favorable and conducive for gradual development. At this
time, models continue to suggest the peak of the event on Monday
and Tuesday, with moisture values in the 2 inches, close to the 3
inches. Still, this system does not represent a direct impact on
the local islands. Nevertheless, an increase in moisture content
across the region is anticipated. The main threats to this event
are flooding and mudslides due to how saturated the soils are.
Urban and small stream flooding is very likely with the passage of
this weather feature.

By midweek, models suggest a more seasonal weather pattern. The
latest model run remains uncertain from the end of the work week
into the weekend. However, both the GFS and the ECMWF models
suggest a wetting pattern with a trough and a tropical wave
merging. Therefore, it is best to continue monitoring the weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Unsettled weather conditions will continue across the
local region. SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop once again over the
islands, causing mtn top obsc and BKN/OVC layers btw FL030-120.
Therefore, tempo MVFR conditions across local terminals will remain
possible throughout this evening. Winds will increase 12-16 kt after
28/13z out of SE/ESE.

&&

.MARINE...Moderate east southeasterly winds up to 20 knots can be
expected over the offshore Atlantic waters and local passages
with seas up to 6 feet, and 10 to 15 knots and 5 feet or less
elsewhere. Please refer to the latest Coastal Waters Forecast
(CWFSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR for latest updates.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flood Watch through this evening for PRZ001>013.

VI...Flood Watch through this evening for VIZ001-002.

&&

$$