Info RER Record Breaking Event Report — Mon Aug 14, 2023 9:03 PM

RERJAX) issued for Jacksonville
FL (JAX) for reaching 9th consecutive day with peak Heat Index of
110F or higher, breaking the previous record of 7 days set in July
of 1981.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the area this
afternoon, with the highest coverage expected to be roughly west
of Highway 301. Isolated stronger storms will be possible this
evening, capable of producing gusty winds up to 50 mph and locally
heavy rainfall. Convection will taper off after sunset with the
loss of heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Tuesday... A slight relief to heat is expected, with max heat
indices rising the Heat Advisory level (108-112 degrees) over
northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. High coverage of showers
and thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, with strong to isolated
severe storms possible, especially north of I-10, as a front
approaches from the northwest. Sea breeze formations and
interactions will increase storm coverage over inland northeast
Florida in the afternoon, and coverage/intensity will increase
later in the day over southeast Georgia as the pre-frontal
convection moves in. With high moisture and DCAPE values near 800-900
J/kg, the main threats will be wet downbursts and locally heavy
downpours.

Wednesday... Wet pattern continues with high precipitation chances
over northeast Florida and southeast Georgia as the frontal system
lingers over Georgia. Temperatures will finally fall to near
normal, with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices close to Heat
Advisory levels. Currently the Weather Prediction Center has NE
FL and SE GA under a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall on
Wednesday. Localized flooding will be possible from heavy
downpours as well as training storms over grounds that are
saturated from previous days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

`Cooler` temperatures with highs near 90 degrees expected on
Thursday as precipitation coverage remains heavy over NE FL and SE
GA with the front staying nearby through Friday. A similar
pattern to Wednesday is likely, with slightly less activity over
inland SE GA. Southwesterly steering flow will shift southwesterly
Friday night, and coverage will decrease each day Friday through
the weekend, with north central Florida having the highest chances
for diurnal thunderstorms each day. Drier air over southeast
Georgia will keep storm coverage scattered, with PWATs likely
below 2 inches Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Convection has weakened at TAF sites and currently has shifted all
to the west over inland SE GA, so just VFR conds with convective
debris clouds through the evening hours. Some rainfall at GNV/VQQ/JAX
today may lead to some patchy MVFR fog around sunrise Tuesday
morning, otherwise VFR through the morning hours with diurnal
heating and decent atmospheric moisture should allow for VCTS by
17Z with TEMPO groups for TSRA at all NE FL TAF sites, while have
held SSI at PROB30 groups for now with slightly lower rainfall
chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward
across the central and south Florida peninsula through tonight. A
frontal boundary will then push southward towards the Georgia
waters by Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in gradually
strengthening south southwest winds and waves of showers and
thunderstorms that will likely continue through late in the
week. Winds will approach exercise caution levels over the outer
waters Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL beaches Tuesday,
and a low to moderate risk at SE GA beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Record high temperatures for our designated climate sites are
listed below. In addition to near record highs, record high
minimum temperatures will also be challenged.

        Mon 8/14Tue 8/15
                -------------------------
Jacksonville 97/2019 99/1956
Gainesville    97/1918100/1918
Alma, GA    97/2007 99/1995
St. Simons     99/1995 97/2011
Craig Airport   97/2019 97/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  96  73  91 /  80  50  50  70
SSI  80  94  78  90 /  10  50  60  90
JAX  77  97  77  93 /  10  70  40  90
SGJ  78  95  77  92 /  10  90  50  90
GNV  76  94  75  91 /  10  80  50  90
OCF  76  94  75  91 /  10  80  50 100

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ020-021-023-
     024-030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-222-
     225-232-236-237-240-325-340-425.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$