Info HWO Hazardous Weather Outlook — Thu Dec 7, 2023 6:04 PM

HWOSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR for
updated information.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
./FROM PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 526 AM AST Thu Dec 7 2023/.

While there is a possibility of limited afternoon convective
development, a cool advective pattern, typically the primary
source of shower development during the local fall season, will
prevail. A dominant mid-level ridge will persist over the northern
Caribbean, sustaining a trade wind cap inversion and dry air
aloft, suppressing shower development. However, weak upper-level
troughs will briefly weaken the trade wind cap and facilitate the
influx of deep moisture into the region. Meanwhile, at the
surface, a subtropical surface high pressure system building over
the western-central Atlantic will maintain a tightened local
pressure across the Northeastern Caribbean and, thus, breezy to
locally windy conditions are likely across the forecast area.
These increased winds will frequently steer patches of shallow
moisture, including moisture related to the remnants of a cold
front and an easterly disturbance early in the forecast period.

According to model guidance, precipitable water values are
anticipated to remain within typical seasonal levels (between 1.2
and 1.6 inches). However, above-normal moisture levels (1.6 inches
or higher) are likely on Sunday into Monday and later in the
workweek, aligning with the timing of the remnants and easterly
disturbances and a weakened trade wind cap. These brief
transitions will be evident in the increased frequency of showers
moving inland from the waters, especially during nighttime over
eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite this,
hazard risks through the long-term forecast period should center
on winds-related threats, mainly across coastal areas and lower
elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds durg prd. FEW-SCT cld lyrs nr FL028...FL050
mstly fair wx clouds over the regional waters and enroute btw
islands. Isold SHRA. SHRA/-SHRA psbl ovr interior and W-SW PR with
VCSH psbl mainly at TJMZ/TJPS 06/19-23z...and TJSJ aft 21Z. SFC
wnds fm E-NE 10-15 kts with ocnl hir gusts and sea breeze
variations...bcmg calm to LGT/VRB aft 07/22z.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate trade winds will continue to increase, generated
by a surface high-pressure ridge across the central and eastern
Atlantic. By tomorrow, a stronger high-pressure ridge will build
and spread over the western Atlantic. Consequently winds will
increase, becoming fresh to locally strong. Hazardous seas for
small craft are likely due to a long-dominant period northwest to
north swell and increasing wind speeds from tomorrow into early
next week. Additionally, increased shower activity is possible as
remnants of a cold front approach the regional waters. Small Craft
Advisories are currently in effect for most coastal waters due to
seas building up to 8 feet (and up to 10 feet over some Marine
Zones) and winds increasing to 20-25 knots with gusts up to around
30 knots during the weekend. For more information and details on
current marine risks, refer to the SJU-
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below and the Marine Weather
Message product (MWWSJU). Stay tuned to future updates and
products issued by the National Weather Service.

&&

.SURF ZONE...
For tonight, up to moderate risk of rip currents for most north-
oriented beaches of Puerto Rico and eastern St. Croix.

However, deteriorating marine and coastal conditions will increase
the risk of rip currents. Breaking waves up to around 7 feet will
promote a HIGH RISK of Rip Currents for the northern coastline of
Puerto Rico from tomorrow morning to at least early next week.
Rip Current Statements due to high risk of rip currents will
likely be issued for other coastal areas, including Culebra,
Rincon, the USVI, and Vieques in the next update. Stay tuned to
future updates and products (CFWSJU & SRFSJU) issued by the
National Weather Service.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through late Sunday
     night for PRZ001-002-005-008.

VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM AST Tuesday for
     AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 PM AST Monday for
     AMZ712.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM AST Monday for
     AMZ716.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM AST Tuesday for
     AMZ723.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM AST Monday for
     AMZ733.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 AM AST Tuesday for
     AMZ741.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 AM AST Monday for
     AMZ742.

&&

$$