Advisory NPW Special Advisory — Mon Jul 1, 2024 11:42 AM

NPWSJU) is in effect for the north, west, and east sections of PR,
Vieques, Culebra, and St. Croix. However, the weather conditions
could quickly deteriorate later this afternoon across portions of
the Anegada Passage, the Caribbean waters, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands as the outer bands from Major Hurricane Beryl begin to move
over the region. Beryl should pass about 200 miles or more south of
the islands through Tuesday morning. In its path, the outer bands of
Beryl will bring periods of thunderstorms and breezy to windy
conditions, with winds ranging between 25-30 mph with stronger
gusts. Quick-moving showers with periods of heavy rainfall could
lead to urban and small-stream flooding and localized flash
flooding. Due to the fast-moving nature of these showers, rainfall
accumulations should generally range between 1 and 2 inches with
isolated higher amounts, mainly across the USVI and the eastern and
southern half of PR. Beryl will also bring hazardous seas and life-
threatening rip currents with high surf conditions across all the
islands.

Weather conditions will improve by late Tuesday and continue through
Wednesday as another Saharan Air Layer with drier air and suspended
dust moves from the east. Therefore, hazy skies and limited shower
activity can be expected through Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

No major changes have been introduced since the last discussion, and
the forecast continues on track.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area of
low pressure (Invest 96L) located in the Central Tropical Atlantic
with a medium to high formation chance over the next few days. This
low pressure is expected to approach the Caribbean waters by
Thursday, and staying well south of the local area. At this moment,
model guidance suggest that this system could bring a broad
moisture field toward the northeastern Caribbean. Therefore,
enhancing the shower and thunderstorm potential across the local
islands. The precipitable water content analysis suggests between
2.25 to 2.30 inches. Therefore, a wet and unstable weather pattern
will be present through at least Saturday. By Saturday, as the
Invest 96L moves toward the western Caribbean drier air will
filter across the region and fair weather will establish with
limited shower activity.

A vigorous tropical wave located behind Invest 96L is forecast to
approach the local area by early Monday. This wave will bring
sufficient moisture to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the
local area. Model guidance does not develop this wave, however,
the effects of this wave will affect the area through midweek.
Regardless of the expected tropical activity, warm temperatures
will dominate throughout the week. Daytime temperatures will
remain in the range from the upper 80s to lower 90s along the
urban and coastal sectors, and heat indices reaching the low to
mid 100s. Heat Advisories are likely with the expected conditions.

AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions expected across all terminals through most of
the fcst period. HZ due to Saharan dust will diminish today.
Conditions will gradually change from late this afternoon through
Tuesday morning due to SHRA/TSRA associated with the rainbands from
Hurricane Beryl. Therefore, MVFR conds are possible across the USVI
terminals btw 01/21z-02/12z, and across the PR terminals btw 02/03z-
18z. East winds increasing at 15-20 kt with stronger gusts.

MARINE...

The strong surface high pressure across the Central Atlantic will
continue to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over the
islands. The latest National Hurricane Forecast trajectory moves
Major Hurricane Beryl far to the south of the regional waters late
tonight into Tuesday, deteriorating marine and coastal conditions
considerably, especially for the Caribbean Waters and Passages. The
outer bands of Beryl may produce squally weather during that time.

BEACH FORECAST...

Swells from Beryl will create life-threatening rip currents along
the south-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands from today through midweek. High surf along coasts with
southern exposure are likely beginning this evening.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Heat Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>003-005-
     007-008-010>013.

     High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for PRZ002.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ003-007-
     011.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AST Wednesday
     for PRZ003-007-011-013.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AST Wednesday
     for PRZ003-007-011-013.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for PRZ012-013.

VI...Heat Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AST Wednesday
     for VIZ002.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AST Wednesday
     for VIZ002.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AST Tuesday for AMZ711.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Tuesday for AMZ723.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AST Wednesday for
     AMZ726-745.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AST
     Wednesday for AMZ733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AST
     Wednesday for AMZ735.

&&

$$