Critical HLS Hurricane/Tropical Local Statment — Tue Aug 13, 2024 5:09 AM

HLSSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR for updated information.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

The current forecast track has Tropical Storm Ernesto away from
our region by Friday, about 650 miles, and it is forecast to be a
Hurricane at that time. Weather conditions should improve in our
local area and return to a more typical pattern. The latest
Precipitable Water (PWAT) models suggest values returning to
average values. High pressure across the Atlantic should promote
southeasterly winds through Sunday, then shift from the east on
Monday. At the upper levels, a TUTT will approach from the
northeast, promoting favorable conditions aloft for daily showers.
In general, local weather during the long term will be dominated
by east-to-southeast winds, daytime heating, and local effects.
Therefore, afternoon convective activity with showers and
thunderstorms is expected across the interior and northwestern
Puerto Rico. For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers dragged
by the winds will reach the islands mainly during the morning
hours. Limited excessive rainfall risk will probably be present as
ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas is possible
with shower activity, mainly on Friday. Warm conditions will
return by Friday and last through the weekend, mainly across
coastal and lower elevations.



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 60.6 West. Ernesto is
moving west near 21 kts. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected
cross the Leeward Islands overnight and near or over the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. VFR conds expected at
all terminals for most of the prd. However fqt passing SHRA/isold
TSRA may impact USVI/TJSJ terminals 13/06Z-14Z. SFC wnds will be fm
E-NE 8-12 kts but incrg 15-20 kts with hir gusts btw 25-30 kts
accompanying SHRA/TSRA. SFC wnds will continue to increase to 15-18
kts and gusting to 30 kts or hir aft 13/14Z and accompanying
rainbands from Ernesto when tropical force wind gusts will be
possible. This activity will also promote MVFR/psbl IFR W/low VIS
and CIG en route btw islands and psbl Mtn top obscr ovr E interior
of PR til 13/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Ernesto, located 385 miles ESE of San Juan, is
expected to move into the local waters this evening into
Wednesday as a tropical cyclone. However, marine conditions in our
eastern Atlantic waters and the Anegada Passage could deteriorate
as early as this morning. Further deterioration in marine and
weather conditions is expected Wednesday through Thursday.


&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Beach conditions will deteriorate as Tropical Storm Ernesto
approaches the region. Large breaking waves are expected to impact
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from this evening into Thursday.
High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Statements are in effect
from this evening through at least Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday, respectively.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Tropical Storm Ernesto will bring rainfall accumulation of 4 to 8
inches for portions of the Virgin Islands, eastern and southern
Puerto Rico, as well as the interior. The risk of flooding will be
significant, with rapid river rises, and mudslides likely.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Tropical Storm Warning for PRZ001>013.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AST
     Wednesday for PRZ001>003-012-013.

     Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     PRZ001>013.

     High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Wednesday
     night for PRZ001>003-005-008.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AST Wednesday
     for PRZ001>003-005-008-012-013.

     High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through late
     Wednesday night for PRZ010.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for PRZ012-
     013.

VI...Tropical Storm Warning for VIZ001-002.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AST
     Wednesday for VIZ001-002.

     Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AST Wednesday
     for VIZ001-002.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for VIZ001-
     002.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ711-712-716-723-726-733-735-741-
     742-745.

&&

$$