Advisory NPW Special Advisory — Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:39 PM

NPWSJU) is in
effect.

Similar condtions are expected on Friday and Saturday, as pockets
of moisture will bring passing showers across the windward areas
of the islands during the night, followed by diurnally induced
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and western
PR. Heat advisory conditions will likely continue each day.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

The inherited forecast remains on track. Most recent guidance
suggests precipitable water values ranging from 2.00 to 2.25
inches from Sunday onwards as a low-to-mid-level ridge northeast
of the region promotes moderate east to southeast winds, allowing
tropical moisture to increase across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Additionally, a tropical wave is forecast to move
across the local area from Tuesday into Wednesday. Therefore,
expect an additional increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
across the islands on both days. Some of the potential hazards of
this weather event are urban and small-stream flooding, as well as
localized flash flooding, which can be expected too. Model
guidance continues to show sufficient moisture across all levels
of the atmosphere through the long-term period, particularly by
mid-week, due to the passage of the tropical wave being monitored
by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). NHC still classifies this
tropical wave across the central tropical Atlantic with a low
probability of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days.
While its too early to determine any potential impact on our
forecast area, its encouraged to stay informed, especially as we
enter the peak of hurricane season.

On Thursday, expect to see a gradual change in weather conditions
as a mass of dry air will filter across the islands from the
east, reducing the precipitable water values to between the 50th
(near normal )and 25th percentile (below normal). However,
diurnally induced afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop over the interior and western sections of PR while
passing trade wind showers with lighter rainfall amounts are
expected across the USVI.

AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

A tropical wave crossing the CWA early this morning may cause
tempo MVFR conds at TJSJ/TJPS thru at least 29/10z. Thereafter,
mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals
through the fcst period. Diurnally induced afternoon SHRA/TSRA
over central and western PR should cause VCTS at TJPS/TJBQ btw
29/18z-22z. East winds expected at 12-16 kt with locally higher
gusts and sea breeze variations aft 29/14z.

MARINE...

Surface high pressure over the Atlantic and a weak surface trough will
promote moderate east winds through most of the workweek. During the
day, expect showers to linger across the area as the tropical wave
exits the region completely. However, by the afternoon into evening
hours, we anticipate a drier airmass to move across the islands
reducing the chance of significant rainfall development. The passage
of the next tropical wave could deteriorate marine conditions by
midweek.

BEACH FORECAST...

There is a moderate risk of rip current for the north and
northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra, and Saint
Croix.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>003-012-
     013.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ005-
     007-008-010-011.

VI...Excessive Heat Warning until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-
     002.

AM...None.
&&

$$