Update TCM Marine/Forecast Update — Sat Oct 25, 2025 4:57 PM

TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  75.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE  40SW  80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  90SE  60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  75.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  75.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.7N  75.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT...160NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N  76.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 55NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N  77.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.9N  77.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 55NE  50SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.6N  77.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  55SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N  76.7W...BETWEEN JAMAICA AND E CUBA
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  35SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 65NE  70SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N  73.4W...NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  75SE  55SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  90SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 27.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  75.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN