Update TCD Tropical Discussion — Mon Oct 27, 2025 11:03 PM

TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Melissa this evening.  They found that the system
is maintaining category 5 intensity with the central pressure near
903 mb and peak 700 mb flight-level and tail Doppler radar winds
supporting 150 kt for the current intensity.  The hurricane
continues to exhibit a well-defined eye about 10 n mi in diameter
embedded within extremely cold cloud tops to near -90 deg C.
Upper-level outflow remains well defined over the system.  Although
such intense tropical cyclones typically undergo an eyewall
replacement, radar observations from Jamaica do not show this
occurring thus far.

After remaining nearly stationary over the past few hours, Melissa
now appears to be moving slowly north-northeastward with an initial
motion estimate of around 020/02 kt.  During the next few days, a
mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to deepen near the southeastern
U.S. coast.  This should result in Melissa moving
north-northeastward to northeastward with increasing forward speed
through the forecast period.  The official forecast is similar to
the previous one and also close the tightly-clustered consensus and
Google DeepMind guidance.  The only significant difference in the
track forecast compared to earlier today is a slower motion during
the first couple of days, which delays the expected arrival of the
core of Melissa over Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern or
Central Bahamas.

Some fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the short
period before Melissa reaches Jamaica.  The primary influence on
the hurricane`s intensity during the next 36 hours will be the
interaction with land.  Some weakening is anticipated after the
system moves over Jamaica and eastern Cuba.  More substantial
weakening is likely after the system moves past Cuba and over the
southwestern Atlantic, where the vertical wind shear is likely to
increase significantly.  The official intensity forecast is close
to the latest LGEM guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain in your safe shelter. Catastrophic flash flooding
and numerous landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewalls
destructive winds may cause total structural failure, particularly
in higher elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage,
prolonged power and communication outages, and isolated communities.
Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging
waves are anticipated through Tuesday. Failure to take immediate
action may result in serious injury or significant loss of life.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic:  Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek.  In Haiti,
extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is
likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and
Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba:  Heavy rainfall with life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides is expected to begin shortly.
Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Preparations should be rushed to
completion.

4. Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane
conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the southeast and central Bahamas on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and a significant storm
surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 16.6N  78.5W  150 KT 175 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 17.5N  78.3W  150 KT 175 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 18.8N  77.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 20.7N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 23.0N  74.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  30/1200Z 25.8N  72.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 29.8N  68.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 38.9N  56.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 47.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch