Update TCD Tropical Discussion — Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:00 PM

TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

The eye of Melissa made landfall in western Jamaica near 17Z with
maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 kt and a central pressure
near 892 mb. Since that time, the hurricane has been weakening over
the mountains of western Jamaica with the eye disappearing and some
warming of the convective cloud tops. Based on these changes, the
initial intensity has been reduced to a highly uncertain 125 kt.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled
to investigate Melissa this evening to provide better information
on how much it has weakened. It should be noted that while
Melissa`s landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded
in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to
determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic
hurricanes.

The initial motion is now 025/7. A turn toward the northeast with
an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, and this
should bring the center near or over southeastern Cuba late tonight
or early Wednesday. After that, an even faster motion toward the
northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday
night. After passing Bermuda, the cyclone should continue quickly
northeastward into the north Atlantic. The track guidance envelope
has shifted a little to the left (north and west) through 72 h
since the last advisory, and the new forecast track during this
time is also shifted a little to the north and west.

While the center of Melissa is now emerging over water, it will
probably not re-intensify significantly before landfall in Cuba due
to the limited amount of time before landfall and an upper-level
wind environment that is becoming less favorable. Based on this, the
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength before
Melissa reaches Cuba.  After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter
increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause gradual
weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane
strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model
guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain in a safe shelter tonight. Damaging winds will
continue over portions of Jamaica this evening. Catastrophic flash
flooding, and landslides, are expected across the island tonight
with widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication
outages, and isolated communities.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic during the next day or so. In
Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely.
Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are
expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
likely to begin later today. Seek safe shelter.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and
follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night where a Hurricane
Watch is now in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 18.5N  77.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 19.9N  76.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 22.2N  75.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 25.0N  73.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 28.9N  70.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 33.8N  64.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 39.0N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 48.4N  42.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z 54.8N  25.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven