Update TCD Tropical Discussion — Thu Oct 30, 2025 5:09 AM

TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Melissa appears slightly better organized this morning. Overnight
GMI passive microwave images showed a closed mid-level eyewall, and
there have been hints of a ragged eye feature in recent conventional
satellite images with deep convection surrounding the center. Based
on these developments, the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for
this advisory, which is supported by a 5.0/90 kt Dvorak
classification from SAB. A comparison of the 89 and 37 GHz GMI
images indicates the vortex is tilted toward the northeast with
height, likely the result of southwesterly shear over the hurricane.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the hurricane this morning.

Melissa is moving quickly northeastward (030/18 kt) away from the
Bahamas. An even faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a
mid-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic. The tightly clustered track guidance
shows the center of Melissa passing to the northwest of Bermuda
tonight, and a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the island.
Then, Melissa should pass near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland
as a strong extratropical cyclone on Friday night before moving
across the North Atlantic this weekend. No notable changes were
made to the NHC track forecast with this update.

Slight additional strengthening is possible today while Melissa
remains over warm waters in a diffluent upper-level environment.
However, the shear is forecast to become prohibitively strong later
tonight and Friday, and Melissa will reach much cooler waters during
the next 24-48 h. As a result, Melissa is expected to quickly lose
tropical characteristics once it passes Bermuda, and it is forecast
to become a strong post-tropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by
Friday night or early Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast
remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, and more closely
follows the global models during the extratropical phase later in
the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.

2. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 25.8N  73.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 29.0N  70.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 34.4N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 40.6N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 47.0N  52.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  01/1800Z 51.6N  45.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/0600Z 53.9N  40.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/0600Z 55.5N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/0600Z 58.5N  21.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart