Update TCD Tropical Discussion — Thu Oct 30, 2025 10:39 PM

TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025

Satellite imagery suggests that Melissa is starting the
extratropical transition process, with cold air clouds beginning to
enter the southwestern side of the circulation and the remaining
convection now confined to the northeastern quadrant. Reports from
the last Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into the storm
included a central pressure near 971 mb and 700-mb flight-level
winds of 111 kt well to the southeast of the center. Since there is
no convection in this area to mix these winds to the surface, it is
difficult to tell just how strong the surface winds may be. However,
based on the observed structural decay and the trends in satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly
generous 85 kt.

Melissa continues to accelerate to the northeast with the initial
motion now 040/33 kt.  An even faster motion toward the northeast is
expected during the next 48 h as the cyclone becomes embedded in
strong southwesterly flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone to
the northwest. This track should bring the center to the northwest
of Bermuda during the next 6 h or so, and just south of the Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland between 24-36 h.  After 48 h, an
east-northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected as Melissa becomes part of an elongated area of low
pressure over the northeastern Atlantic. The new forecast track is
faster than the previous one, but has little difference in direction
of motion from the previous track through 96 h. An eastward
adjustment was made at 120 h. Overall, the new forecast track is
close to the consensus models in a tightly-packed guidance suite.

Melissa is now moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and
this should aid the ongoing extratropical transition.  The cyclone
is expected to become post-tropical by 24 h, then continue as a
gradually weakening extratropical low as it crosses the north
Atlantic. The forecast intensities during the extratropical stage
are based on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast intensities.

Key Messages:

1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions now occurring on the island.

2. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 32.8N  67.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 37.3N  62.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 43.5N  55.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  01/1200Z 49.2N  48.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  02/0000Z 52.9N  42.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  02/1200Z 54.6N  36.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/0000Z 55.6N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/0000Z 59.5N  17.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/0000Z 62.6N  11.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven