Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Mar 21, 2026 10:39 PM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1030 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to gentle breezes expected through the remainder of the weekend.

- Mainly dry conditions along with near-normal temperatures
  expected through early next week.

- Despite recent rainfall this week, moderate drought conditions
  persist for the entire island chain. These conditions may worsen
  over the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

A surface high blanketing the Gulf, stretches across Florida
Peninsula into the adjacent Atlantic. The stronger winds of the
past week have finally relented and are now light to gentle and
broadly out of the north. This flow is maintaining relatively
cool conditions along the Keys this evening. Temperatures are near
70 with most locations reading dew points near 60. Broad and strong
deep layered ridging aloft blankets Mexico and the Gulf. This
evenings sounding showed considerable dry air above a thick
isothermal layer based around 850 mb. These features, along with
a fairly dry boundary layer, has prevented any shower activity
through the evening across the region.

Through the overnight period, the surface high will slide further
east southeast and will straddle South Florida. The bulk of the
ridge will remain centered near the Florida Gulf coast. This along
with the likely formation of a weak mainland land breeze will keep
breezes backed norther across the Keys through the remainder of
the night. Consequently, expect overnight lows to range in the mid
to upper 60s with a few spots possibly seeing some decoupling and
radiational cooling. In addition, dew points will remain near 60,
so decoupled locations have some room to move down. Dry and stable
conditions will persist due to dominating deep layered ridging.
Rain chances will remain nil.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

High pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will
maintain gentle northerly breezes on Keys waters through the
overnight period. Winds will tend more veered and slightly
stronger over the Florida straits, while remaining backed
northwest to north on our gulf and bay side waters. Only minor
adjustments made in the evening marine update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 933 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the
overnight period. Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the
north.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$