Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Mar 23, 2026 1:33 AM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1232 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Potential for elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush
  Country and western Coastal Plains daily through next week.

- Moderate chances of fog over the Coastal Plains during the early
  morning hours.

- Dry, abnormally warm weather continues through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A strong mid- to upper-level ridge will dominate through the
upcoming week, leading to the persistence of dry, unseasonably warm
conditons across South Texas. Subsidence associated with this feature
will suppress any chances or precipitation. Only a brief, limited
increase in moisture is expected Monday/Tuesday as a weak mid-level
low over the southwestern Gulf weakens the ridge. This will allow or
no more than isolated, low chances (~10%) for showers over area
waters.

Mostly clear skies and light winds overnight during this next week
will promote the development of patchy fog, especially across the
inland Coastal Plains, with any reductions in visibility improving
shortly after sunrise. Day time conditions will remain quite warm,
with highs generally ranging from the upper 70s along the coast to
the 80s and 90s inland, and even hotter readings across far western
portions of the Brush Country. A weak frontal boundary will stall
north of our CWA late tonight into Monday, resulting in a 2-3 degree
decrease in temperatures Monday and Tuesday compared to previous
days. Southerly winds may become breezy at times due to the
tightening surface pressure gradient associated with that front.

By midweek, the ridge aloft will strengthen once again, reinforcing
above-normal temperatures and continued dry conditions through the
end of the work week. Elevated fire weather concerns will persist,
particularly across the Brush Country, where low relative humidity
and occasional breezy winds will support increased fire danger.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

There`s a moderate chance (45%) for VSBYs to drop to less than 1/2SM
across VCT/ALI and a low (30%) chance for less than 1/2SM at CRP
overnight tonight/early Monday morning. VFR conditions should return
around 14Z accompanied by light southeasterly winds this afternoon
with gusts up to around 15-20KT. Followed by another round of
overnight fog.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) south-southeasterly breeze will persist
through tonight before a light to gentle flow (BF 2-3) sets up on
Monday and Tuesday. Conditions rebound to a gentle to moderate flow
by midweek, continuing through to next weekend. A brief, limited
increase in moisture is expected Monday/Tuesday as a weak mid-level
low moves over the southwestern Gulf, but this will allow for no
more than isolated, low chances (~10%) for showers over area waters.
Otherwise, rain chances are expected to remain negligible with wave
heights between 2-4 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Persistent ridging aloft will allow for abnormally warm conditions
to continue across South Texas throughout the next week. Minimum
relative humidity will consistently drop below 30% over the Brush
Country each afternoon, with Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the
70-89th percentile and dry to critically dry fuels. With winds
between 10-15 mph and gusts reaching 20-25 mph during the afternoon
hours with the seabreeze, elevated fire weather conditions appear
likely the next several days, especially across our westernmost
zones. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for Jim Wells to
Live Oak westward this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    63  85  66  85 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          60  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            65  92  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             61  90  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          66  80  67  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           61  92  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        62  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       67  78  68  79 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$