Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Mar 24, 2026 10:42 AM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1025 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to gentle breezes will continue through the rest of the
  work week.

- Mainly dry conditions along with near-normal temperatures will
  also continue through Friday.

- Despite rainfall last week, drought conditions persist for the
  entire island chain. These conditions may worsen over the next
  several days due to lack of measurable rainfall for most
  locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

High pressure remains dominant across the Gulf Basin and the
Florida Peninsula. This is maintaining a stout subsidence
inversion across the area, along with dry air, and light to gentle
northeasterly breezes. Not surprisingly we have no precipitation
on radar. Most of the clouds seen on visible satellite imagery are
located across the Lower Keys and out across the Straits of
Florida. No changes were needed to this forecast update cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Mainly light to gentle northeasterly breezes this morning with
some moderate breezes out across the Straits of Florida. Breezes
are expected to lull this afternoon then peak once again
overnight. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to suppress rain
and thunder chances through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions expected with northeast winds gradually slackening
into this afternoon then slightly increasing once again overnight.
Generally sustain speeds will be 10 knots or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Yet again another tranquil overnight persists, as KBYX continues
to detect a lack of precipitation. Nighttime Microphysics
satellite imagery indicates a thin boundary line of clouds across
the Straits of Florida though nothing has sparked from it and
elsewhere remains cloud free. Surface observations across the
island chain show temperatures near 70F with dew points in the
lower 60s. Marine observations along the Reef report light winds
generally ranging from 5 to 10 knots. For today, similar
conditions will once again persist. Stability in the atmosphere
from the nearby high pressure will support mostly sunny skies,
with near nil rain chances. Light to gentle northeasterly winds
will potentially become variable during the afternoon as pressure
gradient weakens.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, high pressure will remain
the dominate feature influencing the Keys, maintaining a dry and
stable air mass. Therefore, minimal changes are anticipated
through the next few days with continued low rain chances and
mostly clear skies. In the extended period, a frontal boundary is
projected to approach the region around Sunday. While significant
temperatures variability is not currently expected with this
front, it is likely to be accompanied by freshening of breezes,
potentially reaching fresh to strong. Details in the forecast
regarding timing and intensity will become more refined as it gets
closer to time. Stay tuned!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  68  80  71 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  79  68  79  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$