Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Mar 26, 2026 7:48 PM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
632 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible through the period,
  mainly across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.

- Cold front Friday night bringing near normal temperatures
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Not much of a change from the previous forecast package. High
pressure remains in control through early next week, before the
ridge drifts eastward and the flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Rain-free conditions will prevail tonight through Friday, followed
by low end rain chances (15-30%) over the Rio Grande Plains and
southern Coastal Plains Friday night into Saturday ahead of a
frontal boundary. Accumulations, however, will be minimal
(<0.05"), if any at all. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to
prevail through the end of the forecast period.

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal on Friday,
with near normal temperatures on Saturday in response to the
frontal passage. Temperatures will bounce back to well above
normal on Sunday as onshore flow resumes. These conditions will
persist into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the evening. Brief period of MVFR
conditions expected early Friday morning generally between
09Z-15Z. Otherwise, VFR through Friday afternoon. SE winds gusting
up to 30 knots at ALI and CRP will decrease this evening with only
occasional gusts overnight. A 25 knot Low Level Jet overnight,
will mix to the surface Friday morning leading to surface gusts
around 20-25 knots. Winds are expected to diminish and back to
east through Friday afternoon as a cold front moves into the Hill
Country. The front is expected to move through S TX Friday night
with north winds developing in its wake. Could see wind gusts
20-25 knots behind the front Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A gentle to moderate flow (BF 3-4) will continue into early next
week with an occasional fresh breeze (BF 5) for bays and nearshore
waters south of Port Aransas. A cold front Friday night will
shift winds to the east and northeast on Saturday, before onshore
flow resumes Saturday night. There is a 20-40 percent chance of
showers associated with the cold front south of Port Aransas and
extending offshore Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Humidity values consistently fall between 20-30% over the Brush
Country and western Coastal Plains each afternoon this week.
This, in combination with breezy east-southeasterly winds each
afternoon and dry to critically dry fuels, will result in
elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions. A cold front
is expected Friday night into Saturday morning which will bring a
wind shift from the east to northeast before the front lifts back
northward on Sunday. There is a low (15-25%) chance of wetting
rains associated with the cold front along the Rio Grande and
across the southern Coastal Bend Friday night through Saturday
morning. Rainfall amounts are expected to be <0.05in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    66  84  62  79 /   0   0  10  20
Victoria          62  86  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            66  97  63  85 /   0   0  20  20
Alice             63  91  59  82 /   0   0  10  20
Rockport          68  81  64  78 /   0   0  10  10
Cotulla           64  94  61  83 /   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        63  89  60  83 /   0   0  10  20
Navy Corpus       69  79  66  75 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$