Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Mar 27, 2026 4:51 AM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
441 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will continue into
  the weekend.

- Mainly dry conditions along with near-normal temperatures will
  continue today.

- Despite rainfall last week, the Florida Keys remain in Moderate
  Drought conditions. These conditions may worsen over the next
  couple of days due to lack of measurable rainfall for most
  locations.

- A backdoor front will push through the Florida Keys late this
  weekend, supporting windy conditions, but little change in
  temperatures in its wake.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
CIMSS products shows low to mid level ridging remains across the
Gulf and Florida early this morning. At the surface, strong high
pressure is centered to the north of the Azores. The western side
of this ridge is starting to become flattened on the northwest
side as a frontal system moves eastward south of the Canadian
Maritimes. Farther south, the ridge extends southwestward into
Florida and the Gulf. Marine platforms surrounding the Island
Chain are recording northeast to east breezes near 10 knots as a
result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows PWAT
values ranging from 1 inch to 1.2 inches across the Florida Keys.
This is right near the median for the date. KBYX radar has
occasionally detected some light sprinkles across the Straits of
Florida and near the Upper Keys earlier in the night. However,
these have since fizzled out. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics
imagery shows some stratocumulus across the Keys resulting in
partly cloudy skies. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in
the mid 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s.

.FORECAST...
Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern across
the Florida Keys through at least Saturday. This will continue the
gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes today. Breezes will
begin to shift to the northeast overnight with this continuing
through Saturday. Slight surges in moisture remain on track to
occasionally move through the Keys resulting in slight chances of
showers. Any showers will be brief and transitory with the timing
on any of these showers remaining difficult to pin down. There are
some indications in the hi-res model guidance of showers forming
over the mainland tonight and again on Saturday which may move off
and drift southwestward due to the northeasterly steering flow
aloft. It remains to be seen just how robust this activity may be.
The main risk with this activity will be the potential for frisky
outflow winds due to quite a bit of dry air aloft. The best
chances for this activity appears to be late Saturday and Saturday
night based on the latest guidance. Therefore, if you have plans
across the waters to the north of the Chain, some showers could
approach from the northeast and bring a quick burst of gusty winds
and a few quick downpours.

Then a front approaching from the north will sort of pivot its
way across Florida. It will take the strong Canadian high pressure
building in behind it to help push it through the Keys sometime
Saturday night or Sunday. As the high slides eastward and moves
off the East Coast on Sunday, it will act to push the front
southwestward (backdoor) sending it through the Keys. This will
result in an increased pressure gradient across the area leading
to a prolonged period of windy to potentially very windy
conditions in the extended time frame. We expect the breezy
conditions to begin Saturday night before becoming windy sometime
Sunday and continuing well into the middle of next week. Moisture
surges are also expected to move through the Keys in the
easterlies resulting in episodic showers. It is still early but
there are some indications for modest instability which may result
in the risk for a couple thunderstorms. As a result, thunder was
added to the nearshore waters north of the Chain for Saturday
night. Stay tuned!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high
pressure in the central North Atlantic will gradually shift
eastward through Saturday, maintaining gentle to moderate
northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters.
A frontal boundary will approach from the northeast late Saturday
into early Sunday, with a period of fresh to strong breezes
expected in its wake, lasting through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH
terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain
northeast to east between 5 to 12 knots with occasional gusts of
15 to 20 knots. Slight chance for showers are in the forecast
through the period, however, there is low confidence in timing and
placement. VCSH was not included in either TAF as a result.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day on 1994, the daily record warm low temperature of 78F
was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date
back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  73  82  73 /  10  10  10  20
Marathon  82  73  82  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$