Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Mar 27, 2026 7:48 PM

AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
637 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- No significant rainfall in the forecast until at least early
  next week.

- Critical Fire Weather concerns Saturday behind the cold front. A
  Red Flag Warning is now in effect for Saturday.

- Hazardous boating conditions for small craft due to strong north
  winds and rough seas on Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory remains
  in effect for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

No significant changes in thinking from the previous forecast
packages. A fast moving trough pushing into the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic states will drive a fairly strong cold front through
the region tonight. Limited moisture in the mid and upper levels
will keep this frontal passage dry, so no rainfall is anticipated.
A fairly tight pressure gradient between a strong surface high
over Texas and a weak low over the eastern Gulf tomorrow will
create a period of gusty winds north winds from late tonight
through tomorrow afternoon. Winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30
mph will occur after the front pushes through the area due to this
tight pressure gradient. The NBM has a known high bias in terms of
post-frontal dewpoints in the Spring and Fall months. To
counteract this, have used the NBM 10th percentile values for
tomorrow. This lowers humidity values to between 20 and 30 percent
for most of the area. Conditions will be primed for wildfires to
occur given the gusty winds, and we advise everyone to not burn
any brush or trash tomorrow. Cooler air will also filter in, and
this will allow temperatures to fall back to more typical readings
for late March with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the
50s.

The drier air will quickly depart on Sunday as a surface high
centered over the Carolinas becomes the dominant feature impacting
our weather. Winds will quickly turn easterly and then
southeasterly Saturday night into Sunday, and this onshore flow
will allow for rising dewpoints and higher overall humidity by
Sunday afternoon. Although conditions will remain breezy with
winds around 15 mph, the critical fire weather threat will
diminish. Still, everyone should remain cautious if they plan to
do any burning on Sunday given the dry conditions in place.
Temperatures will remain near average on Sunday, but the
increasing dewpoints will push overnight lows higher for Sunday
night. Readings should only fall into the low to mid 60s as
dewpoints climb into the lower 60s. Fortunately, the stronger
winds will prohibit fog from developing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

All of the long term guidance is in good agreement on the overall
synoptic scale pattern for next week. The pattern will at first be
defined by a broad and deep ridge axis shifting from the
Carolinas into the western Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday. This
will allow for deep layer onshore flow to persist across the
region. Temperatures will quickly rise back to above average
levels in the low to mid 80s and overall instability will
increase. Model sounding analysis indicates that PWATS will
increase to around the 75th percentile for this time of year and
mid-level lapse rates will be around 6.0C/km each day. These
favorable lapse rates will support deeper convective updraft
growth, and this will allow for scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorm activity to develop each afternoon during peak
heating hours. These diurnally forced showers and storms will
quickly dissipate after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Wednesday and Thursday will see the synoptic pattern shift as a
stronger southern stream trough moves into the southern Plains and
southern Rockies. The ridge over the region will shift further to
the east and a broad and deep southwest flow regime will take hold
of the region in the mid and upper levels. Slightly more favorable
jet dynamics will also induce a broad area of stronger upper level
forcing over the area, and this will allow for more sustained
convective activity as we move into the middle portion of the
week. PWATS will remain around the 75th percentile and ample
instability as noted by SBCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/KG in the
model soundings will both work to support scattered shower and
thunderstorm development each day. The upper level support will
allow convection to develop earlier and last later in the day,
but overall convective activity should still be diurnal in nature
with drier conditions expected at night. Temperatures will remain
well above normal as onshore flow persists with highs in the low
to mid 80s and lows in the 60s each day. Overall, the pattern
toward the end of the week will be more similar to that seen in
May than early April.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

All forecast terminals VFR at forecast issuance time with only
some scattered flat cumulus clouds, with bases varying between
FL040-FL060. Wind shift ahead of actual cold front has reached
KMCB, with colder air lagging to the north near Interstate 20
around KJAN. When the colder air arrives, that will produce an
increase in wind speed out of the north and a more solid cloud
deck. Winds likely to increase to sustained 15-20 knots with gusts
25-30 knots for several hours. While the forecast denotes SCT030,
there is at least some potential for a period of ceilings at that
level. The more likely scenario is for the overcast deck to be
midlevel clouds around FL100.

Skies expected to clear by midday Saturday, if not sooner, and
winds will subside by late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A strong cold front will sweep through the waters tonight.  In the
wake of this front, northerly winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots
and seas will rise to 5 to 7 feet in the open Gulf waters.  Given
the strong winds and rough seas expected in all of the waters, a
small craft advisory is in effect from late tonight into tomorrow.
Sunday will see continued rough conditions for boaters as winds
turn easterly, but remain near 20 knots through the day. The winds
will finally begin to ease on Monday as high pressure strengthens
over the area with southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots expected.
These winds will continue through the middle of next week. Seas
will also improve to 3 to 5 feet as winds decrease.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Red flag warnings are now in effect for portions of the area
generally along and north of the I-10/12 corridor for tomorrow. This
is due to a period of critical fire conditions that is expected
 in the wake of a passing strong cold front.  Minimum RH values will
fall to between 20 and 25 percent on Saturday and winds will be
between 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph through the
afternoon hours.  Conditions will quickly begin to improve on Sunday
as winds turn southerly at around 10 mph and humidity increases.
Minimum RH values will climb to between 40 and 50 percent Sunday
afternoon and then further rise to between 50 and 60 percent each
day next week. There will also be increased scattered shower
activity that will bring some wetting rains to the area each day
starting on Monday. Fog is not expected to be a concern the next
couple of nights, but may return as we move into next week.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-071-076-079>086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-
     077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$