Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Mar 29, 2026 1:27 AM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
116 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Lowered tonight`s lows a few degrees. Otherwise, no
  significant changes to the forecast.

- Increased Fire Danger is in effect for Sunday for portions of
  interior NE NC. In addition, a statewide Open Burning Ban has
  been issued for NC until further notice.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight. Dry weather
continues into mid week with warming temperatures.


2) Potentially more active pattern bringing the return of rain
chances later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message 1...Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight.
Dry weather continues into mid week with warming temperatures.


High pressure is settling into the area. Plenty of sun out
there today, but it is on the chilly side especially with the
breeze. Winds diminish to calm or light and variable later this
evening through the rest of the night. This combined with clear
skies provides good radiational cooling conditions, meaning
another cold night. Did favor the lower side of guidance in
light of this, resulting in overnight lows in the upper 20s for
inland and more rural spots with temps right around freezing in
urban areas and near the coast. Our Frost/Freeze program has not
started here locally quite yet, but if you have already planted
any sensitive plants, you will need to take precautions to
protect them from the freeze Sunday morning. The good news is
that temperatures will begin to moderate moving forward, with
lower 60s expected for highs on Sunday, lower to mid 70s on
Monday, and lower to mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Low
temperatures will also remain milder during this timeframe. Dry
conditions will persist through at least Wednesday morning.


Key Message 2...Potentially more active pattern bringing the return
of rain chances late next week.

The latest model runs continue to trend more active and wet for the
second half of next week. Initially, it looks like our rain chances
will return later Wednesday evening into Thursday as high
pressure moves offshore and a cold front settles into the
region. Another system may potentially push in on its heels
Thursday into Friday allowing rain chances to linger. It`s too
early to nail down any exact details, but just know that we may
become quite messy for a few days if the current guidance pans
out - maybe making your Easter egg hunts a smidge muddy.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the TAF period. Winds will remain
light and variable overnight. Winds turn to the SSW inland and
S/SE near the coast in SE VA and NE NC during the daytime.
Expect somewhat breezy conditions inland by the afternoon, with
gusts to ~20 kt likely at RIC/SBY.

Outlook...High pressure settles offshore Monday-Wednesday with
SW flow returning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through Wednesday morning. Rain chances increase late Wed and
continue into Thursday. Flight restrictions will be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 900 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect south of Cape Charles
  through 2 am Sunday.

- A period of marginal SCA conditions may be possible across the
  Chesapeake Bay Sunday afternoon into early Monday. There is a
  better chance for SCA conditions later Tuesday through
  Wednesday ahead of the next cold front.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight through midday Sunday
with high pressure in control of the weather pattern. Southerly
winds increase Sunday afternoon/night into early Monday AM,
potentially approaching low-end SCA criteria across the
Chesapeake Bay. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday with widespread SCAs possible. Winds likely
remain elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week
timeframe with a frontal boundary lingering over or near the
local waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ012>014-030-031.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ630-631.

&&

$$