Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Mar 29, 2026 11:09 AM

AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1055 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The High Surf Advisory has been cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Elevated risk for wildfires continues into Sunday.

- 2) Mostly dry conditions through mid-week with above normal
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated fire weather risk today.

Rain-free conditions will persist across our area today. Northeast
winds this morning will transition to the east this afternoon,
occasionally gusting to 20 mph, especially closer to the coast.
However, minimum RH values this afternoon will generally be above
40%, except higher at/near the beaches. Even though these weather
conditions don`t meet the typical criteria of a Fire Danger
Statement, we have one in effect following our agencies previous
days coordination. Extremely dry fuels will result in an elevated
risk for wildfires.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mostly dry conditions through mid-week with above
normal temperatures.

A mostly dry/zonal pattern to start off the week is expected to
transition to a period of strong mid-lvl ridging while sfc high
pressure prevails across the Southeast for much of the week. A
warming trend is expected as a result, with latest guidance
supporting high temps in the low-mid 80s away from the coast
(sea breeze influences) Tuesday through Thursday.

A cold front could approach the region late in the week, bringing
a higher potential for measurable rainfall next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z
Monday. However, the is a risk for near MVFR cigs to impact the
SAV terminal Sunday morning. Confidence remains too low to have
flight restrictions at SAV at this time. LLWS has been introduced
at CHS/JZI terminals from 12-15Z this morning, prior to sfc
winds gusting. Gusty easterly winds (20-25 kt) are anticipated
at all terminals late Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds should
then decrease at all terminals heading into Sunday evening,
becoming light and variable for the bulk of Sunday night as high
pressure remains across the region.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected
at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Wednesday. TEMPO flight
restrictions possible at all terminals with daily showers and/or
thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Tuesday: An enhanced pressure gradient resides across
the area this morning, supporting Small Craft Advisories for all
waters outside the Charleston Harbor. However, expect winds to
slowly diminish late morning through the afternoon with seas also
subsiding through tonight. Small Craft Advisories will begin to drop
across SC waters by around 2 AM Monday as a result, followed by
nearshore GA waters Monday afternoon. High seas will continue to
linger across outer GA waters, where a Small Craft Advisory
continues into Tuesday morning. Conditions should then remain
below Small Craft Advisory levels during the middle of next week
along the western periphery of the Atlantic high.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for AMZ350-352.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for AMZ354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$