Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Mar 29, 2026 1:39 PM

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend will prevail through early next week.

- Patchy late night and morning fog possible inland tonight and
  Monday night.

- Rain chances return during the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

We will continue to see dry and warm conditions through early
this week as a mid-level high currently anchored over the northern
Gulf gradually progresses eastward into western FL through
Monday. Today`s high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s
inland and the mid 70s along the coast. Southeast winds expected
this afternoon at around 10 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny this
afternoon and evening, but clouds will gradually develop and skies
will become partly to mostly cloudy during the overnight to early
morning hours. There will be a chance for patchy fog during this
period as well. The lows will be warmer tonight, generally in the
lower 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s over the Houston Metro
and the coast.

Monday morning will start off cloudy and fog (if any) will
quickly burn off around sunrise. Skies will gradually become
partly cloudy during the late morning to early afternoon hours.
The day will be warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 80s for
most inland portions and the mid to upper 70s along the coast. For
Monday night into early Tuesday morning, expect partly cloudy to
cloudy skies and lows in the mid to upper 60s for much of the
area. There will once again be a chance for patchy fog overnight
into the early morning hours. Models do hint at a 25-30 knots low
level jet developing Monday night into Tuesday morning, which may
keep our winds slightly higher at night, and thus, inhibit fog
development.

On Tuesday, winds will be a little stronger as the pressure
gradient tightens along the Texas coast. Expect southeasterly
winds of around 15-20 mph over areas west of I-45 and south of
I-10 and 10-15 mph elsewhere. Our temperatures will warm up a
little more on Tuesday, with highs expected to range in the mid to
upper 80s for most of our inland locations. A mid-level shortwave
looks to pass overhead on Tuesday and with a slight increase in
PWs (thanks to the stronger onshore winds), we could see a few
sprinkles during the day.

Low level moisture will continue to increase on Wednesday, with
PWs rising into the 1.3-1.5" range. It may also be one of the
hotter days this week as highs peak in the upper 80s for most
areas with some isolated spots over the Brazos Valley possibly
reaching 90 degrees F. There is a chance for rain on Wednesday,
but will depend on how east of us the upper level trough is. We
had better chances for rain on yesterday`s model runs, but today,
the models show us under the western edge of the upper level
trough and the start of the ridge. Regardless, we can still
expected a few showers and isolated thunderstorms that day,
although they may be mostly focused over areas along and east of
I-45.

A much better setup for showers and thunderstorm is expected on
Thursday as a stronger mid to upper level trough moves through the
Southern Plains and a cold front moves over the north-central
portions of Texas. Moisture convergence over Southeast TX will
ramp up low level moisture and PWs are forecast to rise into the
1.5-1.8" range. Unfortunately, the cold front is expected to stall
over the north-central portions of TX. However, we may see the
showers and thunderstorms that developed from the cold front push
southward into Southeast TX during the day. With the slightly more
unstable airmass, a few vort maxes passing overhead, and the
higher PWs, these showers and storms may bring in some good
rainfall over portions of Southeast TX. The rainfall will be much
appreciated given that Southeast TX continues to be under Severe
to Extreme Drought levels according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday, thanks to the added cloud
coverage and rainfall. The highs are expected to be mostly in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Additional chances for rain along with cooler temperatures look
to be possible this upcoming weekend as another upper level trough
moves across the Southern Plains and a cold front moves over
Southeast TX.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

All sites at VFR this morning. Expect VFR to prevail through the
day today. Winds may gust to around 20 kts at KCLL and in the
vicinity this afternoon, otherwise, expect light SE winds. MVFR
cloud deck will move into northern terminals around 10Z Monday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Light onshore winds and seas of 3 feet or less are expected for
the first half of the week. By mid-week, the local pressure
gradient will tighten, resulting in light to moderate winds and
slightly higher seas for the second part of the week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the second
part of the work week as a few disturbances pass through. A cold
front could move across Southeast TX during the upcoming weekend,
leading to offshore winds in the wake of the front.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  86  64  88 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  63  85  67  86 /   0   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  69  78  70  78 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$