Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Mar 29, 2026 1:39 PM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
128 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions
and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

2) A more active weather pattern looks to develop for the second
half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message 1...High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet
conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

High pressure has settled in overhead allowing for clear skies and
good radiational cooling early this morning. Temperatures are
already in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees for most
locations. Some rural/typically cooler spots could see mid 20s
by sunrise. Today will feature a few passing high clouds, more
seasonable high temperatures in the lower 60s (mid 50s for the
coast and Eastern Shore), and afternoon southerly breezes. With
dewpoints and RHs in the 20s, drying fine fuels, and a slight
breeze, an Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for
portions of central and inland eastern VA, as well as interior
NE NC. Additionally, NC Forest Service has established a
statewide burn ban, meaning open burning is now prohibited
across NC. Any breezes will subside around sunset. Lows Monday
morning will be noticeably "warmer" as we stay in the mid to
upper 40s.

The area of high pressure will slide offshore during the day on
Monday allowing westerly flow to overspread the area, ushering in
warmer temperatures. We`ll top out in the lower 70s on Monday with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. A weak shortwave will pass
by during the day, with some guidance showing a brief chance
for a light shower, especially across northern locations. Confidence
in any spits of rain is low, so did not include it in the
current forecast PoPs. The flow becomes more southwesterly on
Tuesday as ridging builds into the Southeast. Our highs will be
in the lower 80s, about 15+ degrees above normal for this time
of year. Expect light breezes to develop each afternoon during
peak heating.


Key Message 2...A more active weather pattern looks to develop for
the second half of the week.

Wednesday will start off dry as temperatures soar into the low to
mid 80s (70s for the Eastern Shore). The aforementioned cold front
will approach from the northwest later in the day likely marking the
return of rain chances. A shortwave moving into the Ohio River
Valley on the heels of the cold front may keep spotty rain
chances going into Thursday and Friday. With the cold front
lingering over our area, temperatures may have quite a wide
range on Thursday. Model differences plague the extended portion
of the forecast, so detailed timing and coverage of any
rainfall isn`t available yet. However, it`s obvious that the
weather pattern will become more active and wet. If you have
outdoor activities leading up to Easter or any egg hunts
planned, you will want to keep an eye on the forecast to
prepare for any potential wet and/or muddy Easter Bunny tracks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Sunday...

1038mb high pressure is centered offshore of the Delmarva coast
as of 18z. VFR under a sunny sky with a SSW wind 8-12kt with
gusts to ~20kt at RIC, SBY, and PHF, and E/SE 5-10kt at ORF and
ECG. VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through
Monday with high pressure settling farther offshore. The wind
will primarily be S ~10kt tonight, and then become SW and
increase to 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt late Monday morning
into the aftn. Mid and high clouds increase later tonight
through early aftn Monday, especially from RIC to SBY.

Outlook...High pressure remains offshore Monday night-Wednesday
with SW flow continuing. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through Wednesday. Rain chances have diminished Wednesday
through Friday and VFR conditions are likely to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase later this afternoon and especially by
  this evening, remaining elevated into tonight. Small Craft
  Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay.

- Additional rounds of S to SW surges are expected Monday night
  into Tuesday and Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional SCAs will
  likely be needed, with the best chance on the bay.

South to southwesterly winds have increased to ~15 kt with
occasional gusts to 20 kt early this afternoon. Seas are still 2-3
ft, with waves on the bay likely also in the 2-3 ft range. Southerly
winds increase later this afternoon and especially by this evening,
with sustained winds ranging from 15 to 20 knots and gusts up to 25
knots expected (highest over the bay and coastal waters north of
Cape Charles). As such, SCAs remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
late this afternoon into tonight. Will not issue any headlines on
the ocean as the offshore flow should keep seas in the 3-4 ft range.
Winds remain gusty, but fall below SCA criteria Monday morning
through much of the day (though occasional 20 kt gusts are
possible on the rivers and near the land/water interface on the bay).
By Monday night, another southerly surge is expected, potentially
leading to another round of (marginal) SCA conditions across the
bay. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday with widespread SCAs possible. Winds likely remain
elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a
frontal boundary lingering over or near the local waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>014-030-031.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-096-
     509>524.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634.

&&

$$