Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Mar 29, 2026 2:39 PM

AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
227 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated for the afternoon forecast
package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Elevated fire weather risk today.

- 2) Prevailing high pressure will yield minimal rain chances
  through mid-week with above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated fire weather risk today.

Rain-free conditions will persist across our area today. East winds
this afternoon will occasionally gust to 20 mph, especially closer
to the coast. However, minimum RH values this afternoon will
generally be above 40%, and even higher along the coastal locations.
Even though these weather conditions don`t meet the typical criteria
of a Fire Danger Statement, we have one in effect following our
agencies previous days coordination given the ongoing drought and
dire fuel situation. Extremely dry fuels will result in an elevated
risk for wildfires today.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Prevailing high pressure will yield minimal rain
chances through mid-week with above normal temperatures.

Zonal flow/broad ridging aloft will dominate across the southeastern
states early this week, with surface high pressure holding strong.
This set up will favor a warming temperature trend, with high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s by mid-week. Given plentiful dry
air and very little model support, PoPs have been lowered Tuesday
afternoon to only slight chance across inland locations. While a
weak shower is possible Wednesday afternoon, the chances of
meaningful rainfall are very low.

A cold front will approach the region late in the week, a higher
potential for measurable rainfall this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through 18Z
Monday.

Extended Aviation: Prevailing VFR into this week. Brief
restrictions are possible at all terminals each afternoon late
this week with weak showers/tstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: An enhanced pressure gradient resides across the
area this afternoon, supporting breezy conditions with gusts
20-25 kt. Small Craft Advisories continue for all waters outside
the Charleston Harbor mainly for seas 6 ft or greater. Winds
and seas will continue to slowly diminish through tonight. Small
Craft Advisories for the nearshore SC waters (out to 20 nm)
will end shortly after midnight as a result of seas dropping
below 6 ft.

Extended Marine: A Small Craft Advisory for the Georgia waters
will be in effect Monday and into Tuesday as 6 ft seas linger
across the waters. Thereafter, prevailing surface high pressure
will yield sub- Small Craft Advisory conditions across all
marine waters through mid-week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for AMZ350-352.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for AMZ354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$