Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Mar 29, 2026 3:03 PM

AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
151 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Warmer with daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week. No
  severe storms expected, but heavy rain will be a concern.

- Hazardous boating conditions for small craft will continue
  today. A Small Craft Advisory remains today for most waters
  along and east of the Miss River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A surge of deeper moisture will continue to feed into the area
through the short term period on the back of a deep layer
southerly flow pattern. This southerly flow pattern will be driven
by the region residing between a broad and deep ridge over the
eastern Gulf and Florida and a weak trough of low pressure
extending across the southern Plains and Texas. Warmer air will
also feed into the region on the back of this sustained onshore
flow and temperatures will run around 10 degrees above average
through the period. Highs will easily warm into the low to mid 80s
over inland areas and the upper 70s along the coast. Overnight,
lows will only dip into the low to mid 60s due to the high
dewpoints feeding into the region. Fortunately, a persistent wind
of 5 to 10 mph will prohibit fog development from occurring. At
most, each morning will start off overcast as a weak elevated
inversion forms. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are
expected by the afternoon hours.

Conditions will turn moderately unstable each afternoon with
surface based CAPE values climbing to around 1500 to 2000 J/KG
across the region. Weak forcing aloft associated with the trough
axis over east Texas and western Louisiana will also provide
enough lift to support some deeper updrafts and thunderstorm
activity each day. Any storms will remain weak as shear values are
minimal in the short term period. However, brief heavy downpours,
wind gusts to 30 mph, and occasional lightning will be a concern
with any storms that develop. Rain chances have been increased due
to the more favorable conditions expected with PoP peaking at 50
percent on Monday and 70 percent on Tuesday. The higher PoP on
Tuesday is reflective of the increased upper level forcing from
the weak trough moving into the region. All of the convection will
be highly diurnal with activity peaking in the afternoon hours and
dissipating quickly after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Wednesday will see very similar conditions to Tuesday as the weak
trough to the west of the region continues to induce just enough
upper level forcing to support deeper and more sustained updraft
development. Temperatures will remain a good 10 degrees above
average and PWATS will still be near the 75th percentile for this
time of year. The one change will be slightly lower instability
with SBCAPE only peaking around 1000 J/KG on Wednesday. However,
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will still be able to
develop in the very warm and moist environment.

Thursday through Saturday will see the threat of heavy rainfall
and some localized street flooding issues increase as a plume of
tropical moisture feeds into the region from the southern Gulf and
Caribbean. PWATS will rise to between 90th percentile and daily
max values for early April with values between 1.5 and 1.8 inches
expected over the region. Temperatures will also continue run 10
degrees above average. Sounding profiles are moist adiabatic each
day and mid-level lapse rates steepen as the trough to the west
slowly pushes through the region at the end of the week. This will
allow SBCAPE values to increase to 1500 to 2000 J/KG from late
morning through the afternoon hours each day. The end result will
be continued periods of shower and thunderstorm development
through the end of the week. Overnight convection will also be a
concern as the trough will continue to provide enough mid to upper
level lift to overcome a stable layer near the surface. With
decent mid- level lapse rates of 6 C/KM in place, most unstable
CAPE values will remain between 1000 and 1500 J/KG each night.
There should be periods of elevated showers and storms that
continue to develop through the night, so the heavy rain and
localized flooding threat will be a concern even during the
overnight hours. Rain chances reflect this increased risk with
likely PoP in place for Thursday and Friday. Slightly lower PoP is
in the official forecast for Saturday, but an increase to likely
PoP has a good chance of occurring with future forecast updates.
Overall, a much more unsettled weather pattern will be in place
throughout the entire week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Increasing low level moisture into the area has allowed for a
broad area of MVFR ceiling ranging from 2000 to 3000 feet to
develop over the terminals today. These ceilings will linger
into the evening hours and then gradually build down to between
1000 and 1500 after 06z. At BTR, HDC, and MCB, additional stratus
build down due to a slightly stronger elevated inversion will
allow for a period of IFR ceilings between 500 and 800 feet to
develop between 09z and 14z. After 14z, warming temperatures will
start to lift the inversion and ceilings will improve to MVFR at
all of the terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
also start to develop as temperatures warm, and PROB30 groups for
TSRA are in place both this afternoon at NEW, HUM, and MSY and
again after 16z tomorrow at MSY, NEW, HUM, ASD, and GPT to reflect
the convective risk.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Easterly winds will persist into the afternoon hours before easing
back to exercise caution levels of 15 to 20 knots tonight. Seas will
remain at 5 to 7 feet in the eastern waters due to these winds
through tonight. From Monday through Wednesday, a persistent
southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will be the
rule across the waters as a broad surface high over the Southeastern
states dominates the region.  The southeast winds will increase to
15 to 20 knots or exercise caution levels on Thursday as a low
pressure system passes well north of the waters.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-555-557-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ534-536-
     538-555-557-575-577.

&&

$$