Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Mar 30, 2026 1:27 AM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
125 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet
conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

2) The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with lower
rain chances for the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 745 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message 1...High pressure gradually slides offshore while
quiet conditions and moderating temperatures persist through
mid-week.

GOES water vapor channels depict WNW flow aloft over the Mid-
Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure has settled
offshore. Mostly clear this evening, with temperatures ranging
through the 50s, with some upper 40s on the eastern shore.
The increased fire danger statement has ended, but another one
has been issued for Monday for NE NC zones west of the Chowan
river. This is in collaboration with neighboring offices and NC
Forestry, for RH values below 40% with the region in D2/Severe
to D3/Extreme drought.

Not as cool tonight with high pressure offshore and a S wind of
5-10 mph. Forecast lows are generally in the mid 40s to around
50F. The low-level flow will be southwesterly Monday with
mid/upper level westerly flow. A subtle warm front aloft lifts
across northern VA Monday morning. NBM generated ~30% PoPs for
the NW portion of the area, but these have been capped at 20%
and trimmed in coverage given downslope flow and only modest
moisture return. Warmer Monday with highs in the lower 70s
inland and mid/upper 60s across the Eastern Shore. Not quite as
dry with min RH values 35 to 40% inland to 40-50% at the coast.
However, an IFD has been coordinated with NCFS and NC NWS
offices, and this will locally include Northampton, Hertford,
and Bertie counties where the drought status is worse. Breezy
with a SW wind of 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph. Deeper
southwesterly develops Tuesday as upper ridging builds into the
Southeast. Highs will be in the lower 80s (70s Eastern Shore),
about 15+ degrees above normal for this time of year. Breezy
during peak heating hours but RH will not be as low as Monday,
which should preclude any fire weather concerns.

Key Message 2...The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer
with lower rain chances for the second half of the week.

Wednesday will start off dry as temperatures soar into the low
to mid 80s (70s for the Eastern Shore). A cold front will
approach from the northwest later in the day bringing a chc of
showers with a few tstms possible, especially across the NW half
of the area. A shortwave moves into the Ohio River
Valley/Eastern Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. However, 12z/29
numerical guidance has trended stronger with an upper ridge over
the Northeast, which keeps the aforementioned cold front
largely to our NW. Rain chances linger, but are not as high, and
greatest across the western/northwestern tier of the local
area. Temperatures have trended warmer Thursday/Friday. The
latest ensemble guidance depicts the upper ridge remaining
nearly stationary or even retrograding westward by Easter
weekend. Therefore, this would indicate a trend toward warmer
temperatures (80s inland/70s coast), lower rain chances, and
somewhat humid conditions for early April.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight through Monday
with high pressure settling farther offshore. Mid and high level
clouds are on the increase across the area, creating SCT-BKN
skies for the period. The wind has become SW early this morning
and will hold steady around 10-11kt through sunrise. A slight
uptick at all terminals to 12-16kt with gusts to 20-25kt
expected after ~14Z, persisting through the afternoon. A spotty
SHRA can`t be ruled out around SBY through 18Z.

Outlook...High pressure remains offshore Monday night-Wednesday
with SW flow continuing. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through Wednesday. Rain chances have diminished Wednesday
through Friday and VFR conditions are likely to continue other
than the chance for periodic flight restrictions in scattered
showers Wed aftn-Friday (mainly for northern terminals).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase later this afternoon and especially by
  this evening, remaining elevated into tonight. Small Craft
  Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay.

- Additional rounds of S to SW surges are expected Monday night
  into Tuesday and Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional SCAs will
  likely be needed, with the best chance on the bay.

South to southwesterly winds have increased to ~15 kt with
occasional gusts to 20 kt early this afternoon. Seas are still 2-3
ft, with waves on the bay likely also in the 2-3 ft range. Southerly
winds increase later this afternoon and especially by this evening,
with sustained winds ranging from 15 to 20 knots and gusts up to 25
knots expected (highest over the bay and coastal waters north of
Cape Charles). As such, SCAs remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
late this afternoon into tonight. Will not issue any headlines on
the ocean as the offshore flow should keep seas in the 3-4 ft range.
Winds remain gusty, but fall below SCA criteria Monday morning
through much of the day (though occasional 20 kt gusts are
possible on the rivers and near the land/water interface on the bay).
By Monday night, another southerly surge is expected, potentially
leading to another round of (marginal) SCA conditions across the
bay. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday with widespread SCAs possible. Winds likely remain
elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a
frontal boundary lingering over or near the local waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ012-013-030.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$