Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Mar 30, 2026 7:57 AM

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
653 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend along with some late night and morning cloudiness
  this week. More notable will be the higher overnight lows and
  clouds/RH`s.

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return to the forecast. Late Wed night
  & Thursday, and late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning
  currently appear to have the move favorable chances.

- Cold front should pass through Saturday night bringing cooler
  conditions for Easter, though there is some uncertainty as to
  if/when precip tapers off.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Overall, no substantial changes to the ongoing fcst or
reasoning...just minor timing tweaks based on latest guidance.

A continued onshore flow will bring a gradual return of higher PW`s,
RH`s, and temps into midweek. Though we could see some very spotty
showers around as early as Tuesday, chances for scattered activity
are better as we head into Wednesday - and moreso late Wed night and
Thursday time period. This is when some mid level troffiness tracks
across the cntl CONUS and when some potential convection initiates
along the dryline and front well to our northwest. The tail end of
some of this convection, should it hold together, could make it into
SE TX late Wed night and Thursday and bring some welcome wetting
rainfall (better chances I-10 northward).

Rain chances diminish a bit Thurs night into Sat morning (more
isolated in nature). But a deeper/stronger trough should push across
the Plains Friday afternoon through Saturday night. PW`s around 1.9"
should pool south of its associated front and guidance is is pretty
good agreement showing a band of shra/tstms along the front as it
pushes into the SE Tx late in the day Saturday and eventually off
the coast late Sat night or Sunday morning.

Though cooler temps are a decent bet for Easter, there are some
forecast uncertainties to keep in mind this far out. Of course, one
is the timing of the onset of the precip and frontal passage itself
which guidance will probably waffle about from run-to-run and day-to-
day. Another concern is the shallowness of the the front. Lingering
post frontal moisture above the surface and a very messy quasi-zonal
flow aloft and embedded disturbances *may* allow for the
continuation of some light rains Sunday. Safest bet for now is
advertise some 40-50% POPs, and adjust up and down as the finer
details are eventually narrowed down.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

KCXO/KSGR at LIFR due to CIGs/VSBYs. KCLL at MVFR due to CIGs. All
other sites at VFR at this time. Expect conditions to improve
mid-late morning. Winds generally light out of the south. Gusts to
around 25 kts will be possible during the afternoon hours. Light
southerly winds continue overnight with a return of MVFR/LIFR CIGs

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Long fetch 10-20kt SE winds will set up across the Gulf bringing
gradually building seas as we head into the early and midweek time
period. Winds will generally be highest in the afternoon and
evening in the bays, and during the overnight hours offshore.
Wouln`t be overly surprised to see some caution flags at times in
the offshore Gulf during the second half of the work week. With
increased moisture levels returning, we`ll see some shower and
storm chances return to the forecast as the week progresses. The
next front, and associated storms, are forecast to move into the
waters Saturday night or Sunday morning. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  87  65  87  68 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  85  66  85  69 /   0   0  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  77  70  78  70 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$