Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Mar 30, 2026 2:45 PM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
238 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions
and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

2) The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with lower rain
chances for the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message 1...High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet
conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week.

Early morning analysis shows the area of high pressure continuing to
slide offshore while warmer and not-as-dry air is filtering back
into our local area. Dewpoints as of this writing have risen from
the 20s to the mid to upper 40s for most locations. Cloud cover has
also increased as a shortwave is moving into the Mid-Atlantic. Hi-
res guidance is still showing a slight chance of a light shower
across the MD Eastern Shore through mid-day as this feature passes
through. With the drier air in place, any rain that can make it to
the ground will only result in light QPF. Southwesterly surface flow
will allow high temperatures to warm into the lower 70s (upper 60s
for the Eastern Shore). Some afternoon breezes to 20-25mph are once
again expected. Min RHs won`t be nearly as low as they were
yesterday, but in collaboration with neighboring offices and NC
Forest Service, an Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect
for interior NE NC counties west of the Chowan River through
the daytime hours today as dry conditions will allow any fires
to spread rapidly. Deeper southwesterly develops Tuesday as
upper ridging builds into the Southeast. Highs will be in the
lower 80s (70s Eastern Shore), about 15+ degrees above normal
for this time of year. Breezy during peak heating hours, but RH
values will not be as low as Monday, which should preclude any
fire weather concerns.


Key Message 2...The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with
lower rain chances for the second half of the work week.

Wednesday will start off dry as temperatures soar into the low to
mid 80s (70s for the Eastern Shore). A cold front will approach from
the northwest later in the day bringing a chance of showers with a
few thunderstorms possible, especially across the NW half of the
area. A shortwave moves into the Ohio River Valley/Eastern Great
Lakes Thursday and Friday. However, latest guidance continues to
trend stronger with an upper ridge over the region, which keeps the
aforementioned cold front largely to our NW. Rain chances linger,
but are not as high, and are greatest across the
western/northwestern tier of the local area. Temperatures have
trended warmer Thursday/Friday due to the decrease in rain
chances.

Both of the current GFS and Euro runs are very similar in
showing the ridge breaking down a bit by Easter Weekend as a low
pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains/Great
Lakes Region, sending a cold front our way. Timing details will
likely change, but agreement is rather high for rain moving in
during the afternoon of Easter Sunday. Under these conditions,
Saturday would remain rather warm in the 80s, with a cool down
starting Sunday depending on the timing of the front. Be sure to
stay tuned to the latest forecast if you have outdoor
activities planned for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Monday...

SCT-BKN mid-level cloud cover continues for most terminals this
afternoon. A rogue shower or sprinkle, associated w/ a very weak
disturbance aloft, is possible at RIC and SBY over the next
hour or so. Given these would be very light, opted to not
include any TAF mention at this time. SCT cloudiness persists
through the night, with occasional clearing likely. SW winds
will be quite gusty (to 20-25 kt) through this evening,
remaining elevated into tonight. Also included mention of LLWS
after 03z with a low-level jet overhead. Another similar day is
expected Tuesday with gusty winds and SCT cloud cover.

Outlook...High pressure remains offshore through Wednesday with
SW flow continuing. Rain chances have diminished Wednesday
through Friday and VFR conditions are likely to continue other
than the chance for periodic flight restrictions in scattered
showers/storms Wed aftn- Friday (mainly for northern
terminals).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions expected during the day, especially close to
  land, through at least mid week.

- Additional rounds of S to SW surges during the overnight hours are
  expected tonight into Tuesday and Tuesday into Wednesday.
  SCAs have been issued for the northern coastal waters for
  tonight.


Breezy conditions are ongoing this afternoon, especially near the
land/water interface where mixing is better. Latest obs on the west
side of the bay, along the rivers, and along the Atlantic coast
where the wind is coming off the land (out of the SW) are around 18-
20kt with gusts up to 25kt. Meanwhile, further out in the water and
on the east side of the bay, obs are 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt.
SCAs were raised for the rivers for the rest of the daylight hours.
Winds in the rivers should diminish to sub-SCA shortly after the sun
sets and there`s not as much mixing.

Later this evening/tonight, another southerly surge is expected
with highest winds expected across northern waters. Wind gusts
of 20-25 kt are expected across the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay
and northern coastal waters. In addition, seas will build to 4-5
ft across the northern coastal waters, especially out 20 nm.
SCAs have been issued for these areas starting later this
evening. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday evening
into Wednesday with widespread SCAs expected. Winds likely
remain elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week
timeframe with a frontal boundary lingering near or just north
of the local waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012-
     013-030.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ654.

&&

$$