Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Mon Mar 30, 2026 7:45 PM

AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
633 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Warmer with daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week.
  Organized severe storms are not expected, but an isolated strong
  storm with heavy rain is possible.

- Winds will remain elevated for marine areas and may be in and
  out of caution levels for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Tonight through Wednesday night, a pattern of unsettled weather
will set up over the area. Scattered thunderstorms will be
expected daily through Wednesday, mainly during peak afternoon
heating hours. These storms are not expected to be severe. Some
lightning will be possible, especially between 3-6pm, with the
lightning concern increasing as we go through the week.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the low 80s and humid
conditions all week. Lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s as
the week progresses. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Thursday through the weekend, southwesterly flow will
dominate the pattern. A couple of shortwaves will influence the
area, with the first one being Thursday into Friday, enhancing rain
chances. PW values will be increasing throughout the week with
values around 1.4-1.6 inches, which is in the 90th percentile for
SPC sounding climatology. So, there will be plenty of moisture to
work with in the environment with decent CAPE. As the shortwave
moves through, scattered storms will be expected with a few strong
to severe storms possible. Though there are still a lot of
uncertainties on the timing of this system, given it is still
greater than 4-5 days out in time. More details will be known as we
get closer to the weekend.

Another shortwave will be moving through the area Saturday night
into Sunday.  Rain chances will be enhanced as this system moves
through as well. This system has a better chance of seeing strong to
severe storms, but a lot of uncertainties remain in the models at
this point.

Temperatures for the long range forecast will be generally in the
mid 80s for highs, especially Saturday, with lows in the mid to
upper 60s and low 70s. Sunday into Monday, we could see cooler
temperatures behind the frontal system with highs forecast in the
low to mid 70s Sunday and Monday. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Any remaining shower or thunderstorm activity will continue to
decrease through the evening. Overnight, some low CIGs can be
expected with MVFR or lower conditions expected. These conditions
should improve by mid to late morning on Tuesday, however,
convection chances increase through the morning and into the
afternoon where locally lower VIS/CIGs will be possible for most
terminals. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Today through Wednesday, a persistent southeast wind of 10
to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will be the rule across the
waters as a broad surface high over the southeastern states
dominates the region. The southeast winds will increase to 15 to 20
knots Thursday as a low pressure system passes well north of the
waters.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$