Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Mar 31, 2026 2:48 AM

AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
244 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summerlike Bermuda high pressure will maintain southerly
winds and unseasonably warm weather throughout the week.

2) The next cold front may arrive late Sunday accompanied by an
increased chance of showers or t-storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike Bermuda high pressure will maintain
southerly winds and unseasonably warm weather throughout the
week.

An expanding upper level ridge off the Southeast coastline this
week will support Bermuda High Pressure at the surface in a
pattern that looks straight out of July. True, parameters like
surface and 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights aren`t at mid
summer levels, but the overall pattern is very summerlike.

Forecast 500 mb heights near 5850 meters Thursday and Friday
are above the 90th percentile for this time of year for both the
Charleston and Morehead City upper air sites. A subsidence
inversion between 7500-12000 feet AGL should cap off surface-
based convection beginning Wednesday, meaning any isolated
showers that can form later this week should remain shallow with
little to no potential for lightning.

Inland forecast highs are in the 80-85 range each day through
Sunday. Coastal areas should remain ~5 degrees cooler due to
onshore synoptic flow supplemented by the daily seabreeze
circulation each afternoon. This is still 6-12 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The next cold front may arrive late Sunday
accompanied by an increased chance of showers or t-storms.

Latest guidance continues to align with a cold fropa late
Sunday. An upper low centered near the Great Lakes on Sunday
should swing an upper trough across the Carolinas Sunday into
Sunday night, potentially advecting a swath of Gulf moisture
overhead and breaking down the ridge aloft enough to allow
convection to develop along and ahead of the front. Current
forecasts have 40 percent rain chances developing Sunday into
Sunday night as this front approaches.

It`s too early to get a clear handle on whether any severe
weather potential will exist with this front. Forecast modest
mid and upper wind speeds (strongest on the Canadian, weakest on
the GFS) currently don`t argue for this being a good severe
weather setup, but these details will become more clear in the
days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected to prevail through the period, although brief
MVFR vis cannot be ruled out at KLBT or KFLO between 10-12Z if
winds can become calm for long enough. A respectable
southwesterly LLJ of 20- 25 kts inland and up to 15-20 kts
nearer to the coast is forecast mainly between 1-3kft. This
should keep light winds going all night with brief periods of
calm, precluding any widespread fog threat. Otherwise, a layer
of shallow altocumulus is anticipated between 6- 8kft, resulting
in SCT to BKN cigs away from the coast from late morning
through the afternoon. These clouds will dissipate late in the
day, leaving a mostly clear sky late in the period.

Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR conditions are expected,
although the potential exists for early morning fog/stratus
Wed/Thu/Fri mainly across the inland terminals. Sea fog may
become an issue beginning for the coastal terminals toward the
end of the week and weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Offshore high pressure will maintain steady
south winds between 5-15 kts over the waters through the
period. Nearshore enhancement due to the sea breeze is possible,
along with slightly backed winds towards SSE. Seas are expected
to subside slightly from 2-4 ft to 2-3 ft by early afternoon,
mainly driven by a southeasterly swell with a period around 7
sec.

Wednesday through Saturday... Sub-SCA conditions continue for
the second half of the week. With Bermuda high pressure locked
in place well offshore and low pressure systems staying off to
the north and west, winds will average out of the S to SE at
only 5-15 kt, with daily enhancement nearshore from the sea
breeze. Seas steady at 2-4 ft, mainly consisting of 7-9 second
SE waves.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$