Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Mar 31, 2026 1:36 PM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
126 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers with isolated
  thunderstorms are forecast each of the next several days.
  Thursday and Saturday have the lowest rain chances.

- A prolonged period of high rip current risk beginning Wednesday
  through this weekend. Despite the warm and occasional sunny
  weather, the surf of 2-3 ft will be dangerous for all levels of
  swimmers. Heed the beach flags and advice of beach safety
  officials.

- Any rainfall will be short-lived and spotty this week, providing
  no meaningful drought relief. Relatively higher rain amounts are
  likely Sunday-Monday. Severe to exceptional drought continues.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Only minor tweaks to rain chances were made for this afternoon and
evening. If a stronger storm can develop, then some gusty winds of
35-45 mph may materialize.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

An uptick in rain chances are forecast today-tomorrow thanks to a
continued moistening low-level airmass fostered by maritime east
to southeast flow, diurnal instability, and the afternoon
seabreeze. Convective initiation focuses around the I-10 corridor
then expands northward into SE AL & SW GA in a summer-like
fashion via isolated to scattered showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms that should quickly diminish once daytime heating
wanes. Modeled time- height cross sections show a wedge of mid-
level dry air for Tallahassee-Valdosta-Panama City as opposed to a
slightly deeper vertical moisture column at Dothan-Albany. The
latter therefore has greater potential to be affected by
convection capable of locally gusty winds compared to locations to
their south. High temperatures are in the low to mid 80s.

For late tonight into tomorrow morning, patchy to areas of fog
aim to develop just east of Mobile Bay, then spread eastward
towards the Lower AL/GA border and Eastern FL Panhandle. This
activity then burns off within a couple hrs after sunrise amidst
low temperatures in the low 60s. Moist confluent SE flow off the
Gulf ushers another round of isolated to scattered convection that
focuses the most over SE AL (~60% chance). Probability of
precipitation decreases with SE extent, i.e., ~25% at Tallahassee
& 10% at Cross City. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s are
forecast once again. These warm conditions will make the beach an
attractive destination. However, a high risk of rip current looms,
so please be aware of what beach flags are flying and what they
mean if visiting.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 211 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Patchy to areas of fog attempts to get going early Thursday
morning, but current model guidance keeps the bulk of this
activity along/south of the I-65 corridor at this time.
Meanwhile, subtropical ridging noses westward from the Atlantic
and appears to advect enough dry air aloft + subsidence to
suppress convection Thursday afternoon. Exceptions are isolated to
scattered showers with a couple of thunderstorms drifting
northwestward from North- Central FL towards the Suwannee Valley.
We currently have about a 20- 30% chance of rain forecast from
Valdosta down to Cross City.

For Friday, a weak upper impulse traversing the Lower MS Valley
provides a focus for slightly better convective coverage (~25-40%
PoPs along/north of I-10) followed by a temporary bout of
subsidence in its wake. Rain chances are therefore on the low side
(~15-25%) on Saturday. Come Sunday, an approaching frontal system
from the west attendant to an extensive northern stream upper
trough aims to bring potentially unsettled weather to the region.
Global models currently show the front on a weakening trend upon
arrival at the Tri-State area, hence the prospects for rainfall
are not overly high at this time. A potential wave of low pressure
traversing the Northern Gulf may end up being the "biggest"
rainmaker early next week for our coastal strip into the Suwannee
Valley. Stay tuned.

Highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low 60s will be
common through much of the long-term period. Frontal passage some
time late Sunday or early Monday knocks down highs by several
degrees with widespread 70s forecast outside of the extreme SE FL
Big Bend. As a reminder, a high risk of rip currents appears
likely at all local beaches amidst this warm stretch of weather,
so keep that awareness in mind if visiting through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A few SHRA have developed near ECP and DHN. A few TSRA are
possible near DHN this afternoon. Some of these SHRA may move into
ABY late this afternoon. Patchy fog may develop tonight with the
best chances near ECP and DHN. Other sites have TEMPOs for fog
later tonight into early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Gentle to moderate easterly breezes prevail the next few days
with daily afternoon seabreezes and nocturnal surges off the
Nature Coast. Surface high pressure anchored over Bermuda and the
western Atlantic should foster generally favorable boating
conditions away from any maritime convection. By Friday,
southeasterly winds attempt to freshen west of Apalachicola ahead
of an approaching frontal system and maintains that pattern
through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Significant fire weather concerns are mitigated the next few days
thanks to a prevailing moist easterly to southeasterly winds and
afternoon seabreezes. Daily chances for showers with isolated
thunderstorms remain in the forecast outside of a relative
convective lull on Thursday. Wetting rains are not anticipated,
but any convection will be capable of producing locally gusty
winds. Minimum relative humidity should stay healthily above
critical thresholds. High afternoon dispersions are expected
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Minimal rainfall amounts are forecast for the remainder of the
week. Better chances for rain arrive late this weekend into
Monday, however. Looking in the extended period, the CPC 8-14 Day
Outlook shows probabilities leaning towards above-normal
precipitation at 33- 40% mainly south to SE of the AL Wiregrass &
Flint River Valley as of March 30th - valid April 7th-April 13th.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  63  84  62 /  10   0  20   0
Panama City   79  64  80  63 /  20  10  30   0
Dothan        82  61  83  61 /  50  20  50  10
Albany        85  62  85  61 /  20  10  30  10
Valdosta      85  62  86  61 /  10  10  10   0
Cross City    85  59  86  59 /  20  20  10   0
Apalachicola  74  64  74  63 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-114.

     High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Thursday
     night for FLZ112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$