Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Mar 31, 2026 2:36 PM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
229 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- High Risk of rip currents begins Wednesday and continues through
  the weekend. Heed the beach flags and advice of beach safety
  officials.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast Wednesday.
  Better shower and thunderstorm coverage is forecast Friday and
  again Sunday as a few cold fronts approach the region. Rainfall
  won`t be enough to bring any relief to the ongoing drought.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM ...
(This Evening through next Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are ongoing this afternoon
with more anticipated Wednesday afternoon. Slightly drier conditions
arrive Thursday before a cold front crawls our way before washing
out Friday. Another cold front arrives Sunday, bringing another
opportunity for rain to end the weekend. There are some indications
of an area of low pressure forming along Sunday`s front in the
northeastern Gulf, but there`s a fair amount of uncertainty as to
whether the low is able to form close enough to provide additional
rain to the area early next week.

Temperatures will generally climb into the middle 80s each afternoon
through Sunday before cooling back into the 70s. Overnight lows will
generally be in the 60s before cooling into the upper 40s to lower
50s following Sunday`s cold front.

There continues to be an H5 ridge over the southeastern Gulf. A weak
shortwave is forecast to lift northeast from the Central Gulf
towards our area later this afternoon into early Wednesday morning.
Combine that with an axis 1.4" to 1.5" precipitable water values
(PWATS) moving ashore in the Florida Panhandle and the seabreeze
should lead to isolated to scattered showers and storms across the
Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama this afternoon and again
Wednesday afternoon. The mid-level flow is such that any
showers/storms that happen to develop should drift north to
northeast, so a few areas in southwest Georgia west of the Flint
River also have the chance of seeing some much needed rain either
later today or Wednesday.

The 1000-700mb Mean Relative Humidity (meanRH) shows a plume of
drier air arriving Thursday afternoon, which should limit shower and
thunderstorm potential and coverage.

A cold front approaches the area Friday afternoon. However, most of
the upper-level support is forecast to lift well north of the area.
A subtle area of vorticity gets left behind over southern
Mississippi and Alabama. However, the 1000-700mb meanRH values
aren`t forecast to increase too much above 50-60%, so have limited
shower and thunderstorm chances to around 30-40% with the highest
chances in the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama. Another
plume of drier air arrives over the region Saturday, limiting rain
chances even more to start the weekend.

Another cold front approaches the area Sunday, this time with a
little more upper-level support. Which isn`t saying much, but we`ll
take what we can get at this point. It`s also worth pointing out
that we`ll be at the base of an H5 trough over the eastern third of
the country, allowing the vorticity to get strung out along the
northern Gulf Coast. A weak perturbation that moves out of Texas and
along the northern Gulf Coast, allowing an area of low pressure to
form in the eastern/northeastern Gulf. If we can be in the right
position on the northern side of this system, then rain chances (and
totals) would increase Monday into early next week. However, there`s
not a tremendous amount of ensemble support for this scenario as
most ensembles either delay the development of the low until it`s
east of Florida or forms it way too far south. But, this forecaster
is attempting something new and being a little more optimistic as
much of the area remains in a rainfall deficit nearing or exceeding
a foot since the water year began on October 1st, 2025.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A few SHRA have developed near ECP and DHN. A few TSRA are
possible near DHN this afternoon. Some of these SHRA may move into
ABY late this afternoon. Patchy fog may develop tonight with the
best chances near ECP and DHN. Other sites have TEMPOs for fog
later tonight into early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds prevail the rest
of the work week. Nightly easterly wind surges will bring near
Cautionary winds to the waters west of Apalachicola in the morning
hours of Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. A cold front stalls before
passing through the northeastern Gulf on Friday, leading to more
southerly winds late Friday into Saturday. A more robust cold front
arrives Sunday, allowing winds to turn more northerly Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Moist easterly to southeasterly winds prevail the rest of the week
and into the weekend. Daily afternoon seabreezes turn winds more
southerly, especially across the Florida Panhandle. The best chance
for showers and storms Wednesday is forecast to be along that
seabreeze, or across the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama
and portions of southwestern Georgia, mainly west of the Flint.
Pockets of high dispersions are forecast along the I-75 corridor
Wednesday with more widespread high dispersions forecast Thursday.
MinRH drop from 40 to 50 percent Wednesday afternoon to 30 to 40
percent Thursday afternoon as slightly drier air arrives ahead of
stalling front on Friday. This stalling front will bring a few
showers and thunderstorms to the area, especially across our
Southeastern Alabama Districts. Another opportunity for rain
presents itself on Sunday as another cold front nears the region. Patchy
fog is a concern Wednesday morning, mainly across the Florida
Panhandle and southeastern Alabama.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

No significant flooding is forecast the next several days.

While rain chances are in the forecast, rainfall totals are
generally forecast to be less than 0.5", if that, for most of the
region. Those lucky enough to get under a shower or storm this
afternoon or Wednesday have the best opportunity of picking up a
quick 0.25" to 0.5", but those will be very isolated pockets and
won`t do much to alleviate the ongoing drought situation. Slightly
better rain chances from a stalling front are in the forecast
Friday, with the better rain chances currently forecast across
southeastern Alabama. A similar story is in the offering Sunday as a
more robust cold front moves through.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  84  62  84 /   0  20   0   0
Panama City   64  80  63  80 /   0  20   0   0
Dothan        61  83  61  84 /  20  40  10  10
Albany        62  85  61  85 /  20  30  10   0
Valdosta      62  86  61  86 /  20  10   0  10
Cross City    59  86  59  87 /  20  10   0  20
Apalachicola  64  74  63  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-114.

     High Rip Current Risk from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late
     Thursday night for FLZ112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$