Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Mar 31, 2026 7:51 PM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
637 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Key Messages:

- Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions this week
  improve behind a cold front with deep moisture this weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Easter weekend and early
  next week, with early total rainfall estimates of 1-1.5 inches
  by Monday evening.

- Breezy to windy conditions this week and a cold front this
  weekend will create adverse marine conditions across the bay and
  Gulf waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Above normal temperatures and generally rain-free conditions will
continue through at least the end of the week across Deep South
Texas. Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will
continue to transport rich, Gulf moisture towards the region,
allowing for precipitable water values to steadily increase each
day through the weekend. While most of the region is expected to
be rain-free through the end of the week, isolated streamer
showers and/or sea breeze activity cannot be ruled out along the
immediate coast and Gulf waters as moisture content increases and
coincides with diurnal instability. Otherwise, high temperatures
each day will range from the upper 80s along the immediate coast
to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains, around 5-10 degrees
above normal for this time of year. In combination with the
humidity, this will result in a minor (level 1 of 4) to moderate
(level 2 of 4) heat risk through the end of the week. Continue to
stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending prolonged time
outdoors.

Our attention will then turn towards Easter weekend and early
next week, where a pattern change will bring unsettled weather and
below normal temperatures across Deep South Texas. Deterministic
guidance continues to highlight an upper level trough and
attendant cold front approaching the region this weekend. Ahead
of the cold front, precipitable water values are expected to range
from 1.8 inches to around 2 inches or so. According to SPCs
sounding climatology, this is above the 90th percentile for early
April across the region.

Precipitation chances increase Saturday morning into Saturday
afternoon from north/northwest to south/southeast as the cold
front translates across the region. The latest suite of
deterministic guidance is keying in on Saturday night into Easter
Sunday morning as the window for the highest chance of rain
(60-70%), although low to medium rain chances (30-50%) continue
into Easter Sunday afternoon. The combination of high moisture
content, local forcing along the front, and large scale forcing
for ascent will likely result in isolated to scattered
thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. While an
isolated severe threat with hail and wind cannot be ruled out
Saturday night, locally heavy rainfall will be the primary
concern this weekend. Probabilistic guidance indicates a low to
medium (20-40%) chance of rainfall greater than 1 inch Saturday
night through Sunday afternoon across the region. Overall rainfall
accumulations from Saturday through Monday range from around
1-1.5 inches, with the highest amounts across the Northern
Ranchlands. While any rainfall is beneficial across the region
given our ongoing drought conditions, any locally heavy rain may
result in nuisance flooding or runoff issues.

Temperatures on Easter Sunday and Monday will range from the upper
60s across the Northern Ranchlands to low to mid 70s across the
Rio Grande Valley, which is around 10-15 degrees below normal for
early April.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions and breezy southeasterly winds give way to MVFR
ceilings and lighter winds overnight before VFR and gusty winds
return late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Low to moderate seas and light to moderate southeasterly winds
will continue through this weekend across the Laguna Madre and
Gulf waters. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in
brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon along
the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. A cold front
approaches this weekend, which will likely result in Small Craft
Advisory conditions. Rain chances also increase this weekend and
into early next week, with a potential for thunderstorms Saturday
night into early Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             72  88  72  87 /   0  10  10   0
HARLINGEN               67  91  70  91 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 72  94  75  94 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         70  96  71  97 /  10   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      72  79  73  79 /  10  10  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     70  86  70  87 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$