Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Mar 31, 2026 11:57 PM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1051 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Key Messages:

- Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions this week
  improve behind a cold front with deep moisture this weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Easter weekend and early
  next week, with early total rainfall estimates of 1 to locally 2
  inches by Monday evening.

- Breezy to windy conditions this week and a cold front this
  weekend will create adverse marine conditions across the bay and
  Gulf waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A much welcomed pattern change is finally arriving with the start
of April. Above normal temperatures and very breezy afternoons
continue through the remainder of the week before a cold front
arrives Saturday night into Sunday, offering up a 10-20 degree
cooler swing into Easter and early next week.

More importantly, aside from the break in the heat, confidence in
beneficial rainfall is increasing for the holiday weekend. The
chance for sea breeze convection has diminished below 10 percent
through Friday, but there still may be some daily sign of life on
radar and hopefully in some rain gauges. A much higher chance of
rain is expected ahead of, with, and behind the frontal passage
Saturday into Monday with a weak coastal trough and surface low
hanging around, extending both instability and deeper moisture.
WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall from
Saturday into Sunday morning. PWAT values near 1.8 to 1.9 inches
arrive Saturday night into Sunday, well above the 90th percentile
for early April. Extreme forecast indices also highlight the CWA
for excessive rainfall Saturday night into Sunday night. Any
thunderstorm in this atmosphere will be an efficient rainmaker and
given the lack of rainfall for well over a month to month and a
half for some locations, there is an increasing runoff and flash
flood threat.

Long droughts in Texas upended by flooding rain is very well
documented, so this will continue to be monitored through the
week. There is still plenty of time to clean and prepare drainage
ditches or canals and get any rain catching buckets or barrels
into place. The best chance of any severe weather will be Saturday
afternoon into early Sunday morning. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions and breezy southeasterly winds give way to MVFR
ceilings and lighter winds overnight before VFR and gusty winds
return late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Southeasterly winds persist into the weekend with an enhanced
pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast increasing winds
each afternoon to SCEC and borderline SCA conditions. A cold front
late Saturday into Sunday brings northerly winds and potential SCA
conditions across the Gulf, as well as showers and thunderstorms,
including some heavy to strong showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night into early Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             72  88  72  87 /   0  10  10   0
HARLINGEN               67  91  70  91 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 72  94  75  94 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         70  96  71  97 /  10   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      72  79  73  79 /  10  10  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     70  86  70  87 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$