Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 1, 2026 2:36 AM

AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
229 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Messages have been updated to reflect minimal rain chances and
above normal temperatures this week, followed by increased rain
chances late weekend into early next week. The Aviation Section has
been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. The Marine Section has been
updated to reflect increasing Small Craft Advisory potential late
week/early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm temperatures with isolated to scattered showers and
  thunderstorms possible during the latter half of the week.

- 2) A cold front could bring increased rain chances late this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm temperatures with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible during the latter half of the week.

Guidance is in good agreement indicating a strong mid level ridge
encompassing the region through late week. At the surface, high
pressure will largely prevail although a weak coastal trough or two
could make a run for shore. The pattern largely favors limited
diurnal convection, but isolated to perhaps scattered showers and
thunderstorms could still get going. The threat for severe weather
is low given weak shear and instability. Otherwise, temperatures
will remain a good 5-10 degrees above early April normals. Highs
peak in the low to mid 80s away from the coast, while lows stay
seasonally mild.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front could bring increased rain chances late
this weekend into early next week.

Mid level ridging will give way to a trough shifting into the
eastern U.S. Sunday into Monday. This will bring the next cold front
and higher rain chances to the area. However, significant rainfall
looks unlikely as latest NBM indicates the probability for >0.50" in
24 hours is only 10-30%, but certainly any rain will be beneficial
given the ongoing drought. Notably cooler temperatures will follow
fropa.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPO MVFR or lower vsbys are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals
between 10-13Z Wednesday due to patchy fog/shallow ground fog
developing at the terminals. Cirrus clouds entering the region
should limit how much vsbys lower approaching daybreak, especially
at the SAV terminal where thicker cirrus will likely be present,
but CHS/JZI could eventually need to include a TEMPO period of
vsbys below 1SM during the 10-13Z timeframe. VFR conditions
should then prevail at all terminals for much of the day Wednesday
through 06Z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: TEMPO flight restrictions due to fog
potential are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals prior to daybreak
Thursday. Additional TEMPO flight restrictions are possible at all
terminals with daily showers and/or thunderstorms this weekend, and
with the arrival of a cold front early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: Atlantic high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Southeast, supporting south/southeast winds 10 kt
or less and seas generally ranging in the 2-4 ft range by the afternoon.
Small Craft Advisories are not expected during this time frame.

Extended Marine: High pressure will persist across the region
through late week, supporting winds/seas that remain below Small
Craft Advisory conditions for a majority of waters. Subtle coastal
troughing could bring a few showers/thunderstorms on Thursday.
Conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through
much of the weekend prior to a cold front advancing toward the
region. The cold front should advance across the local area early
next week, bringing a period of enhanced winds/higher seas. Conditions
appear to support solid Small Craft Advisories across a majority
of waters early next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$