Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 1, 2026 7:18 AM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
700 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Patchy to areas of fog, some of which may be locally dense, is
  forecast to focus along/west of the Apalachicola-Flint River
  basin this morning. Exercise caution if commuting.

- Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers with isolated
  thunderstorms are forecast each of the next several days.
  Thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds and perhaps
  small hail this afternoon.

- A prolonged period of high rip current risk is expected to
  continue at all local beaches. Please heed the beach flags if
  visiting.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Patchy to areas of fog, some of which may be locally dense, burns
off later this morning mainly along/west of the ACF basin. A
1000-500-mb moisture plume supports another round of isolated to
scattered showers with a few pulsy thunderstorms capable of
strong- gusty winds and perhaps small hail are expected again this
afternoon. Convective evolution should be similar to what
occurred yesterday - initiation along the seabreeze front, then a
progression to multi-cell clusters drifting northward into SE AL &
SW GA into the evening. Weak summertime-like steering flow amidst
unseasonably warm temperatures support multiple storm outflow
boundaries capable of producing additional cells. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in
the low 60s. Beachgoers should be cognizant of a high rip current
risk.

Fog attempts to encroach on the I-65 corridor into the Wiregrass
and east of I-75 Thursday morning, then give way to mostly sunny
skies through the afternoon. Scatted showers with perhaps a couple
of isolated thunderstorms push northwestward into the Suwannee
Valley from North-Central FL where there is expected to be less
subsidence influence by the subtropical ridge anchored across the
Western Atlantic. Widespread highs in the mid 80s are forecast
away from the immediate coast - isolated upper 80s over the SE FL
Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Lingering showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning
from remnant afternoon convection moving in from the SE. Better
convective coverage is likely the remainder of Friday thanks to an
upper impulse traversing the region ahead of a progressive broad
trough across the Central Plains. The best rain chances are
along/north of I-10 at 35-50%. Drier weather temporarily presides
over much of the Tri-State area on Saturday thanks to an influx of
dry air ushered in from the western Atlantic subtropical ridge
following the departure of Friday`s disturbance aloft.

By Sunday, a strong surface cyclone racing from the Great Lakes
into Eastern Canada drags an extensive frontal boundary into the
region. Scattered to widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms should be accompanied by this front. Severe weather
is questionable given the rapidly fleeting upper-level support.
Although frontal passage occurs some time Sunday afternoon-
evening, rain chances linger into early next week as southern
stream upper impulses streak across the northern Gulf attempt to
form a wave of low pressure.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s Friday-Saturday
with a slight west-east maxT gradient on Sunday and more uniform,
albeit cooler highs in the 70s by Monday. Lows in the low 60s
persist through the weekend before dipping into the 50s Monday-
Tuesday. A high risk of rip currents lingers through at least the
end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

LIFR/VLIFR in fog/low clouds at ECP/DHN this morning with brief
MVFR possible at VLD. TSRA close enough to ECP/ABY for VCTS,
with highest confidence in TSRA at DHN with a TEMPO group, all
this aftn/evening. Winds SSE 5-10 kts through the TAF period.
With a similar pattern

Cannot rule out another round of fog/low clouds at DHN/ECP late
tonight, but the pattern may favor a setup further west. With
that, cannot rule out restrictions at the remainder of terminals,
so confidence is lower in terms of potential outcomes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A persistent subtropical ridge of high pressure maintains gentle
to moderate easterly breezes through this weekend with daily
afternoon seabreezes and nightly landbreeze surges. A passing
front some time Sunday afternoon or evening causes winds to veer
southerly and southwesterly. Winds then quickly freshen out of the
north following frontal passage and increase to advisory levels
west of Apalachicola by Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Significant fire concerns should be minimal thanks to continued
pattern of low-level east to southeast flow, afternoon seabreezes,
and daily chances for diurnal showers/thunderstorms. The lowest
rain chances are Thursday and Saturday, but thankfully min RH is
expected to remain decently above critical thresholds. High
afternoon dispersions are forecast the next 3 days with the most
widespread LDSI occurring on Thursday. An approaching frontal
system late this weekend looks to produce wetting rains for parts
of the Tri-State area on Sunday. The Central Timezone counties
stand the best chance at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast into
early next week. The best overall chances for rain arrive Sunday
from an approaching frontal system. The latest forecast amounts
mainly range from about a quarter to half inch (isolated higher,
especially in SE AL). These amounts, while much welcomed, will do
little to improve our ongoing extreme to exceptional drought
conditions.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  63  84  65 /  10  10   0  10
Panama City   80  63  80  64 /  20   0   0   0
Dothan        84  61  84  62 /  40  20  10   0
Albany        85  61  85  63 /  10  10   0  10
Valdosta      86  61  86  64 /  10   0  10  10
Cross City    87  59  88  63 /   0   0  30  30
Apalachicola  74  64  74  65 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for FLZ007>012-
     108-112.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735-751.

&&

$$