Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 12:36 AM

AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1229 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increased fire danger statement is in effect until 7 PM
this evening across the interior coastal plain. There is
potential for another IFD issuance tomorrow (THU), but
conditions are more marginal.

2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through the first
part of the weekend.

3) A cold front will push through the area late this weekend
into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler
temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There is potential for another Increased Fire
Danger statement tomorrow (THU), but conditions are more
marginal.

No change with regards to the forecast or the ongoing burn ban,
as NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further
notice. MinRH values appear lower tomorrow, but forecast calls
for slightly weaker Serly winds. NCFS has set thresholds
(already above normal IFD criteria) for a potential IFD for THU
for areas MinRH <= 40% AND wind gusts >= 20mph. Day shift today
has opted to give the midnight crew one more cut at the winds
Td/RH forecast for THU before making a decision on whether or
not to issue an IFD.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Mostly dry with above normal temperatures
through the first part of the weekend.

Dry and warming forecast through the remainder of the work-
week, with model consensus keeping the high anchored offshore,
precluding any precis associated with a weak frontal boundary
that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC. Though
isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the
pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast.
Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids, will be
later in the week (THU-SAT). This trend also favors warmer
conditions across ENC. Adding additional support for the drier
scenario is climatological guidance (CFC), which shows a strong
signal for below normal precipitation through the end of the
week. Consequently, NBM continues to keep PoPs below mentionable
all the way through SAT night. Above normal temperatures will
continue this week and into the weekend, with MaxTs mostly in
the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches. MinTs
generally 60.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will push through the area late
this weekend into early next week, bringing increasing rain
chances, cooler temperatures, and the next best chance for
marine headlines.

A cold front will approach the area Sunday, likely moving
through later Sunday evening into early Monday. Increasing
shower chances Sunday and Monday, along with isolated
thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. NBM has caught on to
the trend in deterministic guidance of the low pressure system
expected to develop and travel along the front early next week,
passing far enough offshore to eliminate PoPs by MON morning.
Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will
lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions to persist across ENC through the entire
forecast period as high pressure centered offshore keeps the
area dry. High clouds tonight will eventually dissipate after
daybreak bringing little in the way of impact to the area.
Afterwards, much like the previous few days, a diurnal Cu field
will set up by mid to late morning and spread inland this
afternoon. Once again, little in the way of impact is forecast
from this Cu field as a SCT deck at about 3.5-4.5 kft is
forecast before clouds dissipate this evening. Clear skies then
expected Thursday night. Otherwise light SW`rly winds at about
5 kts or less will persist through day break across inland
areas, with 10-15 kt winds with gusts up around 15-20 kts noted
along the OBX. Expect winds to increase slightly across inland
ENC by this afternoon to 10-15 kts with gusts around 15-20 kts.
Seabreeze will bring a slight shift in the winds with winds
turning to a SSE`rly direction behind the seabreeze. Winds once
again become SW`rly tonight and decrease down to about 5 kts or
less.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): Mainly VFR, best chance for sub VFR
late Sun into Mon with rain associated with an incoming front.

&&

.MARINE...
Rinse and repeat from previous days through this evening. High
pressure will remain anchored offshore through the first half of
the weekend, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place
through the period. Expect 15-25kt SWerly winds and 4-5 ft seas
through this evening, winds calming some to 10-15kt, allowing
seas to lay down overnight and through the early morning until
the thermal gradient strengthens again in the afternoon. Gulf
Stream waters, far Eern portions of Pamlico Sound, and Croatan
and Roanoke Sounds most likely to see gusts up to 25kt, but not
strong enough to warrant the issuance of a <6hr long SCA this
evening afternoon.

Outlook (Late Weekend into Early next week): Winds become more
Serly THU and FRI and relax some, generally 10-15kt with gusts
up to 20kt during peak heating. FROPA is expected late SUN into
MON and represents the next best chance of SCA conditions both
ahead of and behind the front. Front will be accompanied with
showers and tstorms. PoPs remaining in place potentially into
middle of next week, but likely outside of 20nm, as an area of
low pressure develops off the FL coast and travels along the
boundary well out to sea.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$