Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 1:09 AM

AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1204 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Warm with daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week.
  Organized severe storms are not expected, but an isolated strong
  to severe storm with heavy rain is possible. Cold front is
  expected to move through over the weekend with more widespread
  rainfall.

- Winds will remain elevated for marine areas and may be in and
  out of caution levels for the next several days. Northerly winds
  behind a cold front over the weekend may rise to around 25kt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Minor changes in store for today and Fri. This will be mainly due
to placement of storms and rainfall, which should be mainly over
the western half of the area today and again Fri. The chances will
be higher today than Fri though. The weakness that has been over
the area is being pushed and pulled east and west giving most of
the area some needed rainfall since the beginning of this week.
Believe it or not, there are some locations that have not
recieved any rainfall this week so far. But this will change by
the weekend. Some of these storms today could become strong or low
end severe with hail and winds being the main issues expected.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Upstream on Saturday, eyes will shift to the approaching surface
cold front to our northwest and rather robust parent upper level
trough. Much of the upper level support and get dynamics will be
displaced to our north, but there will be enough low level
convergence and low level moisture maintenance for widespread
showers and storms associated with the front late Saturday and
Sunday. Ahead of the front, isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible during the daytime Saturday. However,
lacking the upper level support, modest lapse rates and meaningful
shear, think the overall severe weather threat will be fairly
limited along and ahead of the front. That said, brief heavy
rainfall will be possible as PWATs climb into the 1.6-1.8" range
respectively.

As mentioned with yesterday morning`s package, GFS showed the front
stalling right along the coast late Sunday and into Monday leading
to more stratiform isentropic showers on Monday. The ECM has come
around closer to that scenario, although it is drier with the front
a bit further south (yet closer than the forecast guidance shown
yesterday at this time). Regardless, by late Monday and early
Tuesday, an H5 trough will grab the surface feature and finally
force it downstream. With a slightly cooler and drier trend by early
to midweek next week setting up under a dry northwesterly flow
aloft. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

IFR cigs should remain over the eastern half of the area. While
cigs will spread westward, they should remain mostly MVFR over the
western half through mid morning before becoming VFR for all sites.
Again, there will be high enough chances to show TSRA for most
terminals today mainly western half of the area today. This
activity will decay with sunset once again but MVFR to IFR cigs
will be back overnight for most terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Nearly stationary high pressure will continue a persistent southeast
wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet over the coastal waters
through the next several days. There could be brief periods of winds
approaching 20 knots. A cold frontal passage late Saturday or Sunday
will turn winds northerly on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories may be
necessary Sunday night into Monday behind the front.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$