Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 1:36 AM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
130 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Patchy to areas of fog, some of which may be locally dense, is
forecast to focus along/west of the Apalachicola-Flint River basin
tomorrow morning. Exercise caution if commuting.

- Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers with isolated
thunderstorms are forecast Friday through Sunday. Thunderstorms will
be capable of strong-gusty winds and perhaps small hail.

- A prolonged period of high rip current risk is expected to
continue at all local beaches. Please heed the beach flags if
visiting.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The only change of note was updating PoPs over the next few hrs
to account for a stubborn batch of convection extending from the
Wiregrass to west of the I-75 corridor. Slow-moving thunderstorm
clusters have produced locally heavy rain at Albany where the ABY
airport has picked up over 1.5 inches since 827PM EDT. That
amount is 40+ percent of the normal April monthly total, and it`s
happening on the first day, no joke!

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Unseasonably warm temperatures and moisture advection
from the Gulf support another round of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. These pulse-like thunderstorms may produce
occasional strong wind gusts and should follow a similar evolution
to yesterday`s convection; storms pop up along the sea breeze front
and gradually drift northward into our AL and GA counties. Expect
additional storm initiation along the outflow boundaries of some
cells. Overall, rain totals Will be around 0.5 inches with isolated
spots receiving up to 1 inch. Although this rain is much needed,
drought conditions are not expected to improve. Convective activity
should dissipate by this evening. Another round of patchy fog is
expected to set up early Thursday morning in the FL Panhandle and SE
AL. This pattern of early morning patchy fog is expected to continue
through Friday. High temperatures are forecasted in the mid 80s and
low temperatures in the low 60s across the CWA. These unseasonably
warm temperatures persist thanks to upper level ridging and drier
conditions in place Thursday. Winds are generally out of the SE,
except for the seabreeze along the FL Big Bend and Panhandle.

On Friday, a broad upper-level troughing pattern pushes a weak cold
front eastward through the CWA. Upper level vorticity seems to
support development of thunderstorms ahead of the front, although it
may fizzle out as it moves eastward. Again, these thunderstorms are
not expected to improve drought conditions. And speaking of drought,
this weak cold front ushers in temporarily drier weather by Saturday
and RH deceases across the region.

A strong upper-level trough makes its way across the CONUS this
weekend, and an associated cold front arrives to our CWA by Sunday.
This front will be stronger and more impactful than the previously
mentioned front from Friday. Thunderstorms accompany this frontal
passage, though severe potential seems limited due to a lack of
upper-level support. Can`t rule out some strong gusty winds and a
few isolated cells with heavy rain. Temperatures decrease, with
highs in the 70s early next week. Early next week, there are some
indications of lingering vorticity in the upper levels which allow
rain chances linger through next Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Expect some MVFR restrictions in fog this morning at ABY, ECP, and
DHN - ABY due to the recent rainfall with support from guidance.
For DHN, a brief period of MVFR around sunrise. The aforementioned
restrictions are due to fog. Elsewhere and otherwise, expect VFR
through the period. Winds on Thursday Southeast, except becoming
southerly at ECP/TLH and eventually DHN due to the seabreeze. Some
VCTS near DHN during the evening on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The surface high in the western Atlantic maintains gentle to
moderate easterly to southeasterly breezes through this weekend with
daily afternoon seabreezes and nightly landbreeze surges. This flow
regime causes elevated wave heights, with occasional 3-4 ft wave
heights. A passing front some time Sunday afternoon or evening
causes winds to veer southerly and southwesterly. Winds then quickly
turn northerly following frontal passage and increase to advisory
levels west of Apalachicola by Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

On Thursday, high dispersions are forecast across much of
the CWA as a slightly drier air mass allows min RH to drop to about
35% - 40%. Fire weather concerns are minimal Friday thanks to
southeast flow, afternoon seabreezes, and daily afternoon
thunderstorms. On Saturday, a drier air mass is ushered in by a weak
cold front, however, RH remains above critical thresholds. On
Sunday, a stronger cold front supports higher PoPs and the potential
for a wetting rain for parts of the CWA. Some shortwave troughing
early next week supports continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms, keeping fire wx concerns low throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast into
next week. Highest chances for a wetting rain is on Sunday, with the
passage of a cold front. Rainfall is expected at about a third of an
inch to an inch. There are no flooding concerns associated with this
frontal system. Although this rain is much needed, drought
conditions are not expected to improve.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  64  84  64 /   0  10  40  10
Panama City   80  64  80  65 /   0   0  20   0
Dothan        84  62  83  62 /  10   0  40  10
Albany        85  63  84  64 /   0  10  50  20
Valdosta      86  63  86  63 /  10  10  50  10
Cross City    87  62  87  62 /  10  10  40  10
Apalachicola  74  64  75  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$